Keir Starmer is traveling to a NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey next week. He will have just over a week left as Britain's prime minister. This trip will be his final international visit in the role, according to The Guardian.

The timing is awkward. Andy Burnham, described by officials as the "prime minister in waiting," is already preparing to take over. Starmer arrives in Ankara representing both the outgoing government and the current one — and those two roles are in tension with each other.

The Money Argument

NATO members have a spending target: each country should spend 3.5% of their total economic output (GDP) on defence by 2035. The United States, led by President Trump, wants everyone to hit this goal. The US ambassador to NATO has already warned that "some allies are doing more than others."

Britain pushed back. The prime minister's official spokesperson said: "We reject these claims. The UK has always met its NATO spending commitments and remains one of the top defence centres in the alliance."

The numbers tell a mixed story. Britain is the third-largest contributor to NATO in actual money, after only the United States and Germany. But if you measure it as a share of what each country produces, Britain ranks 14th out of 32 members. The UK has promised to raise defence spending to 2.7% of GDP by 2027–28 but has not committed to reaching 3% by the end of the decade. This gap is what will be examined at the summit.

There is also a domestic problem. Officials say Starmer is leaving Burnham a £5 billion shortfall in the defence budget plan — a charge that Number 10 has not fully explained. This will likely become a major debate during the transition between governments.

The broader context here is that walking into an international negotiation without a clear budget plan, while simultaneously handing off power, weakens Britain's position. Starmer needs to show that Britain's defence commitments are serious and will outlast his departure.

The European Plan

Starmer is not planning to meet Trump one-on-one at this summit. Instead, he and other European leaders want to present Trump with a unified message: that Europe is actually spending more on defence, and that the burden is being shared more fairly.

To prepare this message, Starmer has met repeatedly with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte over recent weeks. On 24 June, five European leaders issued a joint statement promising a successful outcome in Ankara. On 7 June, Starmer met with the French and German leaders alongside Ukraine's President Zelenskyy. Each meeting was designed to build a European position before the main negotiation.

Rutte has called the Ankara summit an "implementation moment" — not a moment to set new rules, but to show that existing plans are actually working. This language helps European leaders argue that progress is real without admitting that targets have been missed.

The Russian Threat

Britain released new figures about Russian military activity. Russian ships in UK waters have increased by 30% over the past two years. NATO has launched fighter jets more than 700 times in the past two years to intercept Russian aircraft approaching allied airspace.

These numbers form part of Britain's argument to the alliance: Europe is under active pressure from Russia right now. This is a reason for solidarity, not blame.

What Starmer Can Actually Achieve

Trump's schedule suggests what matters most to him. He is expected to meet one-on-one with Ukraine's president in Ankara. Starmer is unlikely to get a bilateral meeting — he will likely see Trump only in group sessions or brief informal chats. An official said no "dressing down" was expected, a telling comment, since someone apparently asked about it.

Officials are presenting the summit to the public as a chance for Britain to announce defence industry deals and joint military projects with allies. That would give Starmer something tangible to show before he leaves office.

The real constraint is this: Starmer is attending one of NATO's most important summits in years as a leader about to leave, with unresolved questions about defence spending at home and a successor who has never been tested on the world stage. When Number 10 insists that Britain's contribution "will not waver," they are signalling to both NATO and to Burnham's incoming government that nothing will change. But only the next government can actually make that promise stick.