A new poll gives the governing coalition 61 out of 120 seats in Parliament — the bare minimum needed to govern. At the same time, more than half of the people surveyed said they would seriously consider voting for more than one party. The poll, run by RNZ and Reid Research, surveyed 1000 people from 2 to 9 July.

Labour leads with 34% of the party vote. National is at 28.7%, its lowest since Christopher Luxon became leader. NZ First sits at 11.5%, ACT at 7.8%, the Greens at 10.3%, The Opportunity Party (TOP) at 4.7%, and Te Pāti Māori at 2.3%.

Put together, Labour and National account for 62.7% of the party vote. That is down from 66.4% in March and 66.9% in January. In other words, the two big parties are getting a shrinking share of the vote.

The poll also asked people how firmly they support a party — meaning whether they would stick with that party no matter what. Labour had the most firmly committed voters at 15.7%, followed by National at 12.8%. The Greens were at 4.1%, NZ First at 4%, ACT at 2.7%, Te Pāti Māori at 1.2%, and TOP at 1.2%.

When the pollsters added in people's second-choice parties, both Labour and National lost support. Labour dropped to 28.7% and National to 24.3%. The smaller parties all gained. NZ First rose to 13.8%, the Greens to 13.1%, ACT to 10.5%, TOP to 6%, and Te Pāti Māori to 3.6%.

That second-choice result pushed TOP above 5% — the threshold a party needs to get into Parliament without winning an electorate seat. It puts TOP in a position no party outside Parliament has held in recent polling. The combined Labour-National vote in that scenario fell to 53%. RNZ

The broader context here is that the governing coalition has almost no room for error. Sixty-one seats means no cushion if a seat is lost in a by-election, an MP leaves, or coalition partners disagree. The coalition has to hold three different groups of voters together while more than half the electorate is open to other options.

National's drop to its lowest polling under Luxon adds to that pressure. The party has been losing ground across several polls.

For Labour, the numbers look better at first glance, but weaken when second choices are counted. Support drops below 30% in that scenario. Labour's committed-vote floor of 15.7% is the highest of any single party, but it still leaves a large group of voters who see Labour as a possibility rather than a sure thing.

All the smaller parties gain from the second-choice measure, but TOP stands out. At 4.7% on the straight vote, it climbs to 6% when second choices are included. NZ First's rise to 13.8% suggests its voter base is solid and could grow. The Greens' gain to 13.1% points to a pool of second-choice support on the left, and ACT's move to 10.5% shows a similar pattern on the right.

The throughline of the poll is that 54.4% of people are open to seriously considering more than one party. More than half the electorate is not locked in, and the figures show where those voters are looking. The two major parties are shrinking while smaller parties pick up a growing share of both committed and persuadable voters.

For the governing coalition, the maths is simple: 61 seats is enough to govern, but only just.