Intel told investors to expect revenue between $13.8 billion and $14.8 billion for the second quarter of 2026. Gross margin — the percentage of each sales dollar left over after paying to make the product — is expected to be 37.5% under standard accounting rules, or 39.0% on an adjusted basis that excludes certain one-time items. Intel also set its tax rate at 4% under standard rules and 11% on the adjusted basis. These figures come from Intel's April 23 filing with U.S. securities regulators. The company will discuss actual results on a call scheduled for July 23, 2026 at 2:00 PM Pacific time. Intel

The first quarter of 2026 produced two numbers worth looking at side by side. Intel's PC chip business brought in $7.7 billion, up just 1% from a year earlier. Intel Its data center and AI chip business brought in $5.1 billion. Wall Street analysts had expected about $4.41 billion, so Intel beat that estimate by roughly $690 million, or about 16%. Reuters

The AI chip result matters more strategically. Intel said in January 2026 that it couldn't make enough server chips to keep up with demand from companies building AI data centers. Reuters The first-quarter numbers suggest Intel started turning that unmet demand into actual sales. What the numbers can't tell us is whether Intel truly eased its production bottleneck, or simply redirected the chips it did have to its biggest customers.

The PC chip result, meanwhile, comes against a backdrop of a shrinking computer market. A financial firm cut its 2026 forecast for global PC shipments from over 3% growth to a 4% decline. Reuters

The broader context here matters for Intel's outlook. That shift from growth to decline — a swing of more than 7 percentage points — makes Intel's 1% PC revenue increase look fragile. The PC business is still Intel's largest source of revenue, and a shrinking market limits how much that business can grow even if Intel sells well. The Q2 guidance range of $13.8–14.8 billion combines both the PC and AI chip businesses, and the $1 billion spread between the low and high ends is wide enough to cover very different outcomes for each.

Starting in Q2 2026, Intel's financial statements will also include full ownership of an entity called Ireland SCIP, which was previously accounted for differently. Intel This change affects what shows up in Intel's reported revenue, costs, and potentially its profit margins. The margin guidance figures mentioned earlier already reflect this change.

The gap between the two tax rates — 4% versus 11% — is also worth noting. A 4% tax rate is unusually low and likely reflects one-time credits or the way Intel's income is split across different countries, including the new Ireland addition. The 11% adjusted figure smooths out some of those effects. Anyone trying to predict Intel's quarterly profit needs to understand that this difference will have a real impact, and the details will have to come from the July 23 call.

That July 23 call is the next concrete event to watch. The key questions, based on what we know so far: did Intel's AI chip supply keep catching up with demand through the second quarter? How did the Ireland change affect the numbers? And did the PC business hold its slim 1% growth against a market now expected to shrink 4% this year?

The margin guidance gives analysts a specific number to measure Intel against. A 39.0% adjusted gross margin in a quarter that includes the Ireland change, ongoing AI chip supply limits, and a weakening PC market sets a clear bar. If the actual number comes in higher or lower on July 23, the difference will need to be traced back to one of three stories: the AI chip business, the PC business, or the accounting change.