President Donald Trump told Axios on July 23, 2026, that he was considering a massive attack on Iran that would be "bigger than ever before," adding: "I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it" (Al Jazeera). This came on the twelfth straight night of US strikes against Iranian territory. Those strikes have increasingly targeted infrastructure like bridges and tunnels, according to Iranian media. The US military confirmed the twelfth night of operations on July 22, 2026 (AP News).

Iran has fired back beyond its own borders. After US strikes on the night of July 22, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait on July 23. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite branch of Iran's military, said it was targeting US military assets such as radar and air defense systems in all three countries (Middle East Eye). The IRGC also said it attacked a telecommunications tower in Kuwait, calling it payback for US attacks on Iran's own communications infrastructure. In an unusual step, the IRGC spoke directly to the Kuwaiti public, saying it was the United States, not Iran, that had violated Kuwait's sovereignty.

Kuwait confirmed that its Abdali border crossing with Iraq was hit by hostile drones on July 23. A Kuwaiti power plant caught fire during an earlier wave of Iranian strikes in July (Al Jazeera). Iran has also claimed, without proof from outside sources, that it destroyed the US Fifth Fleet's command centre in its attacks on Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned on July 22 that Tehran would retaliate "an eye for an eye" against any future attacks, including on Iran's infrastructure. Iranian army spokesperson Mohammad Akraminia said retaliatory attacks would continue as long as US strikes on Iran persist. On July 22, Trump also told reporters the US would soon strike the area near Pickaxe Mountain, which is described as Iran's main nuclear facilities (AP News). He had previously posted on Truth Social that if Iran does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, the United States would strike.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow strip of water between Iran and Oman. About one-fifth of the world's oil supply travels through it. It has been effectively shut since the US and Israel launched the war on Iran in late February 2026. US military strikes have been conducted partly with the goal of reopening it (Reuters). Trump announced on July 13 that Washington was "reinstating" a blockade on Iran in the strait. That same day, Iran fired at oil tankers passing through it (AP News). By July 9, the US had struck about 90 targets across Iran (AP News). Iranian officials said US strikes had killed more than 35 people and wounded over 300 as of July 16 (AP News).

The economic impact is growing. Oil prices (measured by a benchmark called Brent crude) surged above $100 a barrel on July 23 for the first time since May 2026. The Houthis, an armed group that controls part of Yemen and is aligned with Iran, declared a blockade of Saudi Arabian ports and fired at two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea on July 23. Houthi sources told Al Jazeera correspondent Yousef Mawry in Sanaa that facilities belonging to Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, could become a future target if Saudi Arabia does not lift its blockade on Houthi-controlled ports. Two additional tankers were hit after entering shipping routes not authorized by Iran during the July conflict (Middle East Eye).

Another key waterway, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, is now also destabilized. That strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is a major route for global shipping. With both it and the Strait of Hormuz compromised, two of the world's most important shipping routes are disrupted at the same time.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told a Security Council meeting that the situation is "getting out of control" and "teetering on the edge of the unimaginable." A temporary peace deal signed by the US and Iran around June 2026 has been all but destroyed by the fighting. In February 2026, Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency with respect to Iran and setting up a process to impose tariffs on the country (White House). That order now looks like an early step toward the full-scale confrontation that followed.

The broader context here is a conflict that has systematically removed every path toward peace. The June interim deal was the last piece of diplomacy still standing between Washington and Tehran. Its collapse came alongside the Hormuz shutdown, the expansion of strikes to Iranian infrastructure, and the spread of the fighting to at least three Gulf states that host US military bases. Iran's choice to strike US assets in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, rather than only targeting US forces in the Gulf, follows a deliberate logic: it raises the political cost for countries that host American troops and tests how united the US alliance network really is. The IRGC's direct appeal to the Kuwaiti people, casting the US as the one violating Kuwait's sovereignty, is a calculated messaging effort aimed at splitting the coalition from within.

On the US side, Trump's language has shifted. In June 2025, he said Iranian nuclear facilities had been "obliterated" (White House). By July 2026, he is promising new strikes on Pickaxe Mountain, Iran's main nuclear complex. That shift suggests either that the earlier claims of total destruction were overstated, or that the targets have expanded. Trump's attendance at a ceremony for US soldiers killed in Iranian strikes at Dover Air Force Base on July 22 (White House) shows another dimension: American casualties are now part of this conflict, and the administration is making that visible to the public.

The Houthi escalation opens a third front. By blockading Saudi ports and threatening Aramco facilities, the Houthis are using the broader US-Iran war to push their own agenda against Saudi Arabia. Having both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb disrupted at the same time compounds the damage to global shipping and energy markets. With Trump signaling imminent escalation and Iran's military leadership promising open-ended retaliation, neither side has offered any sign of stepping back as of July 23.