Christopher Luxon has formally ruled out his National Party working with the Opportunity Party (TOP) after the next election. He says the smaller party's support for a land tax is a deal-breaker for any partnership (RNZ).

New Zealand uses a voting system called MMP. Under MMP, parties usually need at least 5 percent of the vote to get into Parliament. When no single party gets enough votes to govern alone, larger parties team up with smaller ones in what is called a coalition. A land tax is a charge on the value of land itself, separate from the rates that councils already collect.

Luxon made the announcement without warning at the end of his usual Monday press briefing on July 27, 2026, after reporters had already covered the conference (1News; NZ Herald). He did not give a direct yes-or-no answer at the conference, but his office later confirmed the statement was a formal rule-out (RNZ).

Luxon took questions for about three and a half minutes before walking away from reporters. He said the Opportunity Party wanted 'extreme policy on taxes' and called National 'a party of low taxes.' When asked about Opportunity calling itself a centrist party, he said: 'They're as centrist as I am an All Black, frankly.'

This is a change from what Luxon had been saying before. Until now, he would only say that a vote for Opportunity looked 'like a vote for Labour and the Greens' and that he had not 'given them any thought.' Luxon told reporters the decision to rule out Opportunity had been discussed among National's MPs and party board 'for several months.'

National's deputy leader Nicola Willis said Luxon's view was 'widely held' across the party. She contrasted him with Labour leader Chris Hipkins, who 'refuses to be clear about who he would work with.' National's campaign chair Simeon Brown said the party had long been 'very clear' it would not work with parties that had 'radical left' policies.

Hipkins called the announcement 'rushed and haphazard' and said Luxon 'got caught on the hoof and just made it up as he went along.' Hipkins said he will say which parties Labour could work with before Parliament finishes sitting near the end of September.

Opportunity Party leader Qiulae Wong said she was sure Luxon would change his mind if the alternative was losing power and going into opposition. She said Opportunity actually had a lot in common with both right-wing and left-wing parties. The party would set out its clear bottom lines closer to the election so voters would know what it would fight for in negotiations.

Before Luxon confirmed the rule-out, RNZ reported on July 27 that Opportunity was 'still open to working with National.' Earlier, on June 24, Wong told the NZ Herald she was willing to talk about common ground with National (NZ Herald).

The backdrop to all of this is the polls. The Opportunity Party is polling close to the 5 percent threshold needed to get into Parliament. An NZ Herald poll on July 24 predicted the current government would be re-elected while Opportunity held close to 5 percent (NZ Herald). Another NZ Herald poll on July 8 showed Hipkins and Luxon neck and neck as preferred prime minister (NZ Herald).

This is not the first time Luxon has used a press conference to rule out a potential partner. Before the 2023 election, he held a special media conference to rule out working with Te Pāti Māori. When a reporter reminded him on Monday that he is currently working with New Zealand First, which wanted to buy back BNZ, Luxon said: 'I ruled that policy out, it's all good.'

The broader picture here is about the numbers after election day. Luxon's decision narrows National's list of possible partners but draws a clearer line about what the party stands for. With Opportunity polling near the threshold, people have been asking whether the party could end up holding the balance of power, with the NZ Herald putting that question directly in a June 18 video poll. Luxon's move means voters who saw TOP as a safe middle-ground option now have to weigh the risk that supporting the party might, from National's point of view, help put Labour in charge.

Wong's belief that Luxon would rethink things in opposition reflects a pattern: parties have often abandoned pre-election rule-outs once the actual seat numbers come in after voting.

For political journalists in the Press Gallery, the more striking detail was how the announcement happened. It was dropped at the end of a briefing with no prepared framing, then confirmed by the Prime Minister's office afterwards. That is what prompted Hipkins's 'caught on the hoof' jab, and it leaves National open to the suggestion that its coalition strategy is being made up on the spot rather than planned carefully ahead of the election.