National Party leader Christopher Luxon has said it is "unlikely" National will do business with the Opportunity Party, stopping short of a flat refusal but leaving little doubt about where he stands.

Speaking at his weekly media conference on 27 July 2026, Luxon was asked repeatedly whether National would form a government with TOP. The party has been polling close to 5% in recent weeks. In New Zealand's MMP system, a party usually needs 5% of the vote to get seats in Parliament. "We wouldn't be in business with people who want to increase taxes," he said, pointing to TOP's flagship policies: a universal basic income of up to $370 a week, a 1.75% annual tax on urban land values, and a 0.5% tax on rural land.

Luxon went further, calling a vote for the Opportunity Party "a vote for Labour and the Greens." He described it as his "very, very strong position" that National would not work with TOP. When journalists pressed him on what that meant, Luxon said it would not be a surprise that National did not want to "do business" with Opportunity. RNZ

TOP has been sitting just below the 5% threshold in several recent polls. The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll placed the party at 4.7%. A separate poll recorded 4.6%, and a third poll reported on 24 July also showed TOP just shy of 5%. The party has gained ground as National has slipped; National fell to its lowest level of support since Luxon became leader, according to an RNZ poll reported by the New Zealand Herald on 13 July. NZ Herald

TOP, led by Qiulae Wong, has said it is willing to work with either of the two major parties. On 1 July, the party said it "would be happy" to go into coalition with National. Stuff

Luxon's comments effectively shut the door on that offer. But by saying "unlikely" rather than giving a flat "no," he leaves a small gap open. Under MMP, a party leader can distance themselves from a potential partner during the campaign while keeping options open for talks after the election if the seat numbers require it.

RNZ has asked the Opportunity Party for comment on Luxon's remarks.

The broader context here is the pressure on National's vote. With the party polling at its lowest under Luxon and TOP attracting voters who might otherwise lean toward the centre-right, the situation is not simple for Luxon. Dismissing TOP outright risks pushing away voters who are currently supporting the minor party. But TOP's policies, built around a land value tax and a universal basic income, do not fit with National's approach to tax and spending, and Luxon has made that clash the main point rather than making it personal.

Luxon dismissed leadership speculation last November and said he would lead National into the 2026 election, according to the New Zealand Herald. NZ Herald The leadership question and the coalition question are now tied together: a leader whose party is polling at historic lows needs to hold on to supporters while also dealing with a minor party that could draw away votes that end up wasted if TOP fails to reach 5%.

The key signal for anyone watching the campaign is that Luxon is choosing to campaign against TOP rather than treat it as a potential ally. That is the opposite of what TOP has been doing, and it puts the pressure on TOP to either clear 5% or accept that it will have no role in forming the next government. The gap between "unlikely" and "ruled out" is the only opening left, and it is narrow.