Canadian spending on travel to the United States fell by $3.3 billion in 2025, dropping from $22.1 billion in 2024 to $18.8 billion, according to Statistics Canada data reported by The Guardian on July 28, 2026. Statistics Canada called it "the deepest and most sustained" drop in cross-border travel they have ever recorded.

Return trips to Canada from the US, whether by car or by plane, dropped about 25% in 2025 compared to the year before. The biggest single-month drop came in July 2025, when border crossings fell by about one-third compared to July 2024. The agency has kept digital records since 1972, and the only other time cross-border travel dropped more than 30% in a single month was September 2001, right after the 9/11 attacks.

The drop has not reversed in 2026. Return trips from the US are still at the same low levels as the end of 2025, when they were down 27% from October through December. That staying power suggests this is a lasting change in habits rather than a short-term reaction.

Statistics Canada linked the travel shift to "the change in the US administration in early 2025 and the implementation of America First policies." For a government statistics agency, that is unusually direct language, connecting a change in people's behavior to a specific political event. A Reuters survey published July 25, 2025, had already shown the intention: 55% of Canadians planned to spend less on US vacations that year, while 35% said they would spend more traveling inside Canada.

Earlier data from StatCan tracked the shift as it was happening. Canadian-resident travel abroad dropped 18.9% in April 2025 compared to the year before, and almost all of that was due to fewer trips to the US. By the second quarter of 2025, Canadians who did make quick same-day trips to the US spent an average of $125 per visit.

While trips to the US went down, spending on travel to other countries went up. Canadians spent $3.6 billion more on travel to destinations outside the US in 2025, reaching $22.8 billion total. Visits to Europe grew nearly 14%, and visits to Asia grew almost 17%. Canadian residents made 14.3 million trips overseas in 2025, up 10.2% from the year before. The pattern is clear: Canadians did not stop traveling. They went elsewhere.

The US is feeling the effect. The U.S. Travel Association expected a 3.2% drop in international tourism spending in the US for 2025 compared to 2024, a loss of $5.7 billion US, as reported by CBC. Canadians have long been the largest group of international visitors to the US, so a 25% drop in their trips has a big impact. States along the border, from Florida's winter vacation spots to shopping areas in Maine and New York, are hit the hardest.

Canada's own tourism may benefit. Spending by overseas visitors traveling to Canada reached $5.7 billion in the third quarter of 2025, up 9.7% from the year before. Those visitors spent an average of $2,169 per trip. If this continues, Canada could gain from two trends at once: fewer Canadians heading south and more international visitors choosing Canada.

The broader context here is a political shift showing up in everyday choices. Travel numbers almost never move this drastically unless there is a war, a pandemic, or a terrorist attack. The only similar drop in 50 years of records followed the 9/11 attacks. What makes this one different is that it is driven by political feelings, not physical danger. Canada and the US have had tense periods before, but this is the first time in recent memory that tension has translated into such a clear, lasting change in how people cross the border.

What we don't yet know is whether this becomes a permanent habit. Surveys from mid-2025 showed Canadians intended to cut US spending, and the full-year numbers proved they followed through. The first half of 2026 shows no bounce-back. If the pattern continues through a second summer, tourism businesses on both sides of the border will need to accept that this is a long-term change, not a temporary dip.