The head of Britain's main farming group, the National Farmers' Union (NFU), warned on 2 August 2026 that the country could face shortages of certain foods. Tom Bradshaw, the NFU's president, urged the prime minister to step in. His warning comes after a winter of floods that disrupted planting, followed by a spring and summer of extremely dry weather that has left farmers struggling to water their crops. Farming groups are calling this the third drought in five years — a pattern they describe as the "new normal" for British farming (The Guardian).

Britain's weather service, the Met Office, recorded just 8% of the usual rainfall for England in July 2026. That is likely to be confirmed as the driest July ever recorded. The scale of the water shortage is visible in everyday life: about 23 million people across England and Wales were under a hosepipe ban by late July, meaning they were not allowed to use hosepipes to water gardens or wash cars (The Guardian). The UK Health Security Agency also issued heat-health alerts for eight regions of England, running from 9am on 3 August to 9am on 5 August.

In the fields, the damage is already showing. A farming research body called the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board found that the hot weather produced the earliest harvest since it began keeping records in 2006. Many farmers in southern and eastern England finished harvesting two to three weeks earlier than usual. Wheat farmers reported crops at half their normal height. Anthony Hopkins, a director at the board, said cereal yields had generally been below the 10-year average, with some farms seeing significant drops (The Guardian). One NFU chairman said his farm was "30% down," producing 800 tonnes less than normal (BBC).

Farmers in parts of England and Wales have also reported more field fires because the ground is so dry (BBC). Wildfires have broken out across the UK, most recently near the Sizewell nuclear plant and Dunwich Heath in Suffolk (The Guardian).

Bradshaw, speaking on BBC Radio 4, called for farmers to get tax breaks to help them build on-farm water storage systems like reservoirs, so they can store water for dry periods in future years. The NFU has published advice for farmers on how to get access to extra water during droughts (NFU). The Environment Agency has separately urged farmers to conserve water, noting that river and groundwater levels are falling (NFU).

The 2026 crisis does not come out of nowhere. The NFU warned back in March that food prices were likely to rise because of the Iran war, and that continued drought could cause food shortages (BBC). A Reuters news analysis in June 2026 found that farmers were likely to use less fertiliser than usual, which would reduce harvests further and could lead to serious food shortages later in the year (Reuters). The FAO, the United Nations agency that monitors global food production, has noted that El Niño — a recurring shift in Pacific Ocean temperatures that disrupts weather patterns around the world — has previously caused failed harvests and food shortages, and that El Niño-related losses are likely to begin appearing (Reuters). Reuters also reported in June 2026 that fertiliser shortages, inflation, and rising oil prices could push an already fragile food industry to the brink (Reuters).

The livestock sector is under pressure too. Drought conditions the previous year forced farmers to rely more on bought-in feed instead of letting animals graze on grass, which raised the cost of producing milk (Reuters). In August 2025, Reuters reported that drought left UK beef farmers struggling to feed their herds, with the Met Office saying summer 2025 was set to be the UK's warmest on record (Reuters).

The broader context here is that several problems are stacking up at once. British crops are failing at the same time as global food supply chains are strained by war, and climate patterns like El Niño are adding further disruption. The NFU's request for tax breaks to build reservoirs is a long-term plan, not a quick fix; it would take years to build and fill new water storage. The real question for the coming months is whether the government will treat British food production as important enough to warrant emergency help, or whether it will leave farmers to absorb the losses, which would eventually show up on supermarket shelves. The NFU's language has gotten more urgent over time, shifting from warnings about higher prices in March to a direct appeal to the prime minister in August. Whether Downing Street responds to that escalation will determine how much of this year's reduced harvest turns into actual shortages that shoppers notice.