A key U.S. natural gas price contract was last quoted at $2.771, down about a third of a percent, on light trading volume, according to delayed data from CME Group. Over the past three months, the price has bounced between $2.52 and $2.89 per unit. A unit here is a million British thermal units, or MMBtu — basically a standard way to measure how much energy the gas contains.

Two things have been pushing the price around: how much gas the country's LNG export plants are buying, and how much gas U.S. producers are pumping out of the ground. LNG stands for liquefied natural gas. It's regular natural gas that has been supercooled into a liquid so it can be loaded onto ships and sold overseas. The gas piped into those export plants is called feedgas.

The most recent notable drop happened in July 2026, when the price fell 6.6 cents, or 2.3%, to $2.888 per MMBtu (Reuters). That came after a June 2 drop tied to a four-month low in gas flowing to LNG export plants (Reuters). The reason: several export plants were undergoing maintenance, which reduced the amount of gas they were taking in. Flows dropped from 17.1 billion cubic feet per day in May to 16.5 billion in June (Reuters).

That pullback reversed a spring rally. On May 1, 2026, prices rose about 1% to a three-week high because production had fallen and LNG exports were near record levels (Reuters). Before that rally, the price had been sliding, settling at $2.523 on April 24, down 15.1 cents from the prior Friday (Natural Gas Intelligence). Traders use a benchmark called Henry Hub — a pricing point at a pipeline hub in Louisiana — to set these monthly prices (Gas South).

On the supply side, U.S. natural gas production in May 2026 was about 110.3 billion cubic feet per day, according to the EIA, the government's energy statistics agency (EIA). Production changes have mattered throughout this period. The May 1 rally was partly driven by a production drop in the weeks before.

The EIA also expects U.S. natural gas use by power plants to keep rising in 2026 and 2027, hitting a record in 2027 (EIA). That demand is tied to the expansion of LNG export capacity. A major new export facility, Golden Pass LNG, was expected to ship its first cargo in early 2026 (EIA). Back in September 2024, feedgas going to LNG exporters was expected to climb from about 13 billion cubic feet per day to 17 billion (Reuters). The May 2026 figure of 17.1 billion confirmed that trend — before maintenance cut it back down.

Here's where it gets interesting. There's a tool called a futures strip — basically a series of contracts that shows what buyers and sellers expect gas to cost over the next 12 months. As of January 22, that 12-month average was $3.970 per MMBtu, up 65 cents (EIA). That's far above the $2.50–$2.89 range where gas has actually been trading this spring and summer.

The gap between today's price near $2.89 and the 12-month forward average of $3.97 tells the story. Right now, gas is plentiful and cheap because export plants are offline for maintenance and production is running high. But the forward curve — the market's best guess at future prices — expects that to change. New LNG export capacity, led by Golden Pass, should soak up extra supply and push prices higher into 2027. The EIA's forecast of record gas use by power plants in 2027 adds to that expectation.

The practical takeaway for anyone watching this market is that the key variable is how quickly LNG maintenance wraps up and feedgas flows recover toward 17 billion cubic feet per day. If that happens soon, the gap between today's price and the forward curve should narrow. If maintenance drags on or Golden Pass hits delays, today's low prices could stick around even as the market still expects higher prices down the road.