CME Group, a major commodities exchange, listed the current front-month natural gas futures contract at $2.685 per MMBtu on August 4, 2026, up a fraction of a percent on the day with just 516 contracts traded (CME Group). A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell something at a set price on a future date — in this case, natural gas priced at Henry Hub, a key pricing point in the U.S. An MMBtu is a unit of energy. The front-month contract is the one closest to expiring, so it reflects what the market thinks gas is worth right now. This price extends a weeks-long stretch below $3 that began in late May, when the contract briefly hit $3.11 on May 19 after already trading under $3 for several weeks (AGA.

Two days earlier, on August 2, the same contract settled at $2.751/MMBtu on much higher trading volume of 2,535 contracts (CME Group). So between August 2 and August 4, the price fell about 2.4% — and trading activity dropped by roughly 80%, from 2,535 contracts down to 516.

CME Group maintains dedicated pages for quotes, settlements, calendars, and trading volume for its natural gas futures and options (CME Group; CME Group; CME Group; CME Group).

The actual spot price — what gas sells for right now in the physical market — tells a different story. FRED, an economic data service from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, lists the 2026 average Henry Hub spot price at $2.95/MMBtu, with the next monthly update due August 5, 2026 (FRED). That release will give the first official look at what gas actually cost in July.

Back in January, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast that the full-year 2026 average price would land just under $3.50/MMBtu, about 2% below the prior year (EIA). But that forecast was made when prices were higher. The front-month contract now sits about $0.80 below that annual projection.

The bigger picture is a disagreement between two views of where gas prices are heading. The EIA, a government agency, said in January that gas would average just under $3.50 for the year. The futures market — where traders bet on future prices — is currently pricing gas at $2.685, well below that forecast. The August 5 FRED release will be the first real test of which view is closer to reality. For anyone watching energy prices, the question is whether actual spot prices move toward the government's forecast or stay closer to what the futures market is predicting.