Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is facing a crisis. His government set a deadline of September 30, 2026, for all armed groups in the country to either hand over their weapons or join Iraq's official military. At least one group backed by Iran has said no, and other groups are split on whether to follow the order Al Jazeera.

The deadline was formally set in late June. Every armed group operating outside the government's authority must either join Iraq's official security forces or give up its guns Asharq Al-Awsat. A committee has been formed to manage this process, but important details are still unresolved as of early July, including how the government will verify that weapons are actually handed over, what counts as a complete weapons inventory, and what legal rights fighters will have if they join the state forces Shafaq News.

One group, Kataib Hezbollah, which has close ties to Iran, flatly rejected the order. The group said it will keep and even expand what it calls its "resistance weapons," arguing that its arsenal is needed to defend the country, not to challenge the government Al Jazeera.

Another group, Harakat al-Nujaba, took a softer stance. It said the government should go after illegal weapons causing chaos, not the weapons held by fighters who "defended Iraq, its holy sites, and its people." In other words, the group is drawing a line between criminal weapons and the ones its fighters built up during the war against ISIS, which it sees as legitimate Al Jazeera.

On the other side, three groups — Saraya al-Salam, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and Kataib al-Imam Ali — have agreed to join the state armed forces. But this does not solve the main problem: the groups refusing to comply are among the most heavily armed and politically powerful Al Jazeera.

The United States has pushed hard for this disarmament effort. The US is also winding down its military mission in Iraq, called Operation Inherent Resolve, which was created to fight ISIS. The September 30 deadline falls on the same date the US-led mission is scheduled to end Asharq Al-Awsat. This is not a coincidence. Washington has long believed that Iraq's government needs to control all weapons inside the country before the US can safely leave. By lining up both deadlines on the same day, the two processes become one make-or-break moment for Iraq's future security.

Money makes this harder. Oil sales make up more than 90 percent of Iraq's budget. But the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that Iraq's oil passes through, was closed due to the broader war on Iran. In March, Iraq's oil exports dropped from 3.3 million barrels per day to about 600,000. That means the government has far less money right when it needs it most — to pay for absorbing thousands of fighters into the military and to deal with the wider economic damage Al Jazeera.

Iraq's position on this issue has changed over the past two years. In January 2024, the prime minister at the time, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, said Iraq wanted US forces to leave in an orderly way but set no deadline Reuters. By November 2025, al-Sudani said Iraq could only disarm these armed groups after the US withdrew its forces completely Reuters.

The current government under al-Zaidi flipped that order. Instead of waiting for the US to leave before disarming the militias, the September 30 deadline treats weapons consolidation as something that should happen at the same time as the US exit. This change reflects strong American pressure during the war on Iran. But it also puts Iraq's government in a tight spot: it has to get compliance from groups that were actually encouraged to arm themselves during the ISIS war, and it has to do so with only a fraction of its normal oil income.

The broader context here is one of competing deadlines and shrinking options. The US military is leaving, and the Iraqi government has set a deadline for armed groups to give up their weapons on the same day. That puts pressure on everyone to reach a deal before the US walks out the door. But with the economy reeling from the oil crash, the rules of disarmament still undefined, and Kataib Hezbollah openly refusing to comply, September 30 is more likely to be the beginning of a messy, drawn-out negotiation than the end of one.