U.S. stock futures were mixed on August 6, 2026, as investors reacted to two very different stories: a possible shipping deal in the Middle East and new worries about AI-related tech companies. Dow futures rose about 133 points, or 0.24%. S&P 500 futures edged up 0.13%. But Nasdaq 100 futures, which track major tech companies, fell 0.55% as anxiety about the AI trade resurfaced (Quartz).

The previous day set the stage. The Dow fell 387.67 points, or 0.71%, to close at 53,961.45. The S&P 500 closed down 0.07%, and the Nasdaq composite managed a tiny 0.04% gain (Reuters). Earlier that week, stocks had been mixed as a pause in strikes involving Iran was offset by doubts about the AI boom and whether chip-stock prices were too high (Wall Street Journal).

Here is the geopolitical story lifting Dow and S&P futures. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which about a fifth of the world's oil supply passes. Iran and Oman reached an understanding on the coordinates of a route through the strait, according to Iran's ministry (Reuters). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously said the U.S. could reach a deal with Iran to reopen the strait. When that idea first surfaced, stocks surged and oil prices fell sharply (Wall Street Journal). A senior U.S. official had separately said Iran should vow to reopen the strait by Saturday or face consequences (Wall Street Journal).

But the deal is in serious doubt. On August 6, Reuters reported that shipping industry sources consider the proposed deal unworkable for commercial shipping (Reuters). The framework would give Iran control over ships entering the Gulf. Iran is also seeking transit fees of between 5% and 7% of the value of cargoes passing through, according to a senior Iranian official (Reuters). Think of it like a toll booth charging a percentage of everything in your truck. A fee that large would be extraordinary for a waterway carrying a fifth of global oil. It would squeeze refiner profits and raise the cost of delivered oil in countries that import it, assuming the fee gets passed along to buyers.

On the earnings front, Western Digital (WDC) fell after issuing disappointing guidance about its future results (Quartz). The decline fed into the Nasdaq 100's underperformance, where concerns about AI-related stock prices continued to weigh on sentiment. The split between the Dow and S&P on one side and the Nasdaq 100 on the other reflects a market caught between two forces: the possibility of less Middle East tension, which helps oil-sensitive and industrial companies, and a rethink of AI tech stocks where prices may be too high relative to what those companies are expected to earn.

On the commodities side, U.S. commercial crude stocks fell by 7.9 million barrels in the latest reporting week, while distillate stocks (think diesel and heating oil) rose for a second straight week (Wall Street Journal). A drop in crude supply would normally push oil prices higher. But the prospect of a Hormuz deal is the bigger factor right now. If the deal collapses because the shipping industry rejects it, the risk premium built into oil prices could return quickly. If it goes through anyway, the cargo fees become the new thing the market has to figure out.

The broader context here is that the market is pricing two unrelated risks at the same time. The Hormuz question is either-or: either commercial shipping accepts the terms or it does not, and early signals point toward rejection. The AI story is less clear-cut but matters just as much for how major stock indexes move. The fact that Nasdaq 100 futures lagged by 0.55% while Dow futures led suggests that investors may be shifting money away from growth stocks toward companies more sensitive to oil prices and trade policy. But one session of futures trading does not make a trend. The key question is whether the Hormuz deal's troubles are already reflected in the overnight optimism lifting Dow and S&P futures, or whether that optimism is based on stale hopes from Bessent's earlier comments. The Reuters report from August 6 is the most recent source, and it directly contradicts what the market appears to be pricing in. That gap between the futures market and the shipping industry's own assessment is the tension worth watching as trading opens.