President Donald Trump told reporters on Thursday that the US-Iran war is nearing an end, and promised that petrol prices will fall once the conflict concludes. Speaking in the Oval Office, Trump said: "I think it's going to end pretty soon. I don't think they can go much longer." He also said he is involved in negotiations with Tehran, adding: "I think we're doing fine" Al Jazeera.

Iran has denied holding direct talks with the United States. Instead, Iran says it is speaking only to Oman, a country next door that has often acted as a go-between, about control of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow strip of water between Iran and Oman through which about a fifth of the world's oil normally passes. Its closure has triggered a global energy crisis, pushing up fuel prices worldwide.

On Thursday, Iran and Oman agreed on the exact routes ships should take through the strait. This is a small but real step toward letting ships pass through again. It deals only with managing the strait, not with ending the wider war.

At the same time, Iran's Fars news agency, citing an unnamed lawmaker, reported that a parliamentary committee is reviewing a bill that would ban US, Israeli, and other "hostile" vessels from using the strait. A draft of the bill, reported a day earlier, would fine ships up to 20% of their cargo's value for breaking the rules Reuters. Oil prices rose by about $3 on the news Reuters.

Put these two developments together and they paint a confusing picture. On one hand, Iran is agreeing on shipping routes. On the other, it is pushing a law to keep American and Israeli ships out entirely. That suggests Iran wants to control the strait as tightly as possible while still keeping some trade flowing.

Trump's optimism also comes after a series of threats and sudden reversals. On Saturday of the previous week, Trump cancelled a planned large-scale military attack on Iran, claiming that Tehran and other regional governments had asked the US to call off the strikes because a diplomatic breakthrough was close. In April, Trump issued an ultimatum, threatening that "a whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again" if Iran did not open the strait. With two hours left on that deadline, he backed down and announced a two-week ceasefire instead.

Trump also reacted angrily to US media reports that American forces may be running low on weapons in the region. Michael Stephens, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said reports for months indicated the US was running low on interceptors, which are defensive missiles used to shoot down incoming attacks. Stephens said the missile shortages make it more dangerous for US military personnel to operate in the region and put strain on other commands in East Asia, meaning the US faces a tradeoff: keeping forces in the Middle East or maintaining its military strength near China.

Analysts have criticised the pattern of threatening escalation followed by last-minute cancellation. Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said Trump's repeated escalations and cancellations have harmed prospects for a negotiated settlement. Parsi argued that the pattern weakens the credibility of negotiations, of sticking to a deal, and of both incentives and threats. This matters especially right now: if Washington is indeed negotiating with Tehran, the credibility of any US promise is the foundation a deal would be built on.

Experts have also cautioned that even if the Strait of Hormuz problem is solved, it will not end the US-Iran war. Broader talks will have to restart from a position of deep mutual suspicion, worsened by months of threats followed by pauses. The strait is the immediate crisis. The underlying confrontation, covering Iran's role in the region, US military presence, and the unresolved questions that came before the conflict, is a separate and much harder problem.

The competing signals from this week show how difficult the situation is. Iran and Oman have agreed on shipping routes, suggesting a practical channel is still open. Yet Iran's parliament is moving to ban US and Israeli vessels entirely, which, if passed, would directly challenge the freedom of navigation the US has called a reason for war. Trump says the war is ending and he is negotiating; Iran says there are no direct talks. Oil markets, already shaken by the strait's closure, rose on the parliamentary bill even as the Iran-Oman agreement offered tentative hope for a corridor for commerce.