Strait of Hormuz Traffic Hits New Low as US-Iran Standoff Deepens
Only eight ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on August 12, 2026, a steep drop from the pre-war norm of 130 to 140 vessels daily, according to Reuters data cited by Al Jazeera. That figure is down from six vessels on Monday and a 10-day average of about 11, setting a new low for the waterway since the conflict began.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow channel between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil has historically flowed. It is one of the most important maritime chokepoints on the planet — a chokepoint being a narrow passage where shipping can be restricted or blocked by a controlling power.
US President Donald Trump used a Truth Social post to claim that the United States has 'total control' over the strait, repeating an assertion made to reporters the previous day. Trump described the US blockade of Iranian ports as 'A WALL OF STEEL' and stated that Iran 'can do nothing about it.' He also said the US would charge other ships for safe passage through the strait, a waterway through which roughly a fifth of global oil historically flows Al Jazeera.
Iran's conditions for reopening the strait have not changed. On August 10, Iran said it will not allow full traffic to resume until the US lifts its naval blockade, lifts sanctions (economic penalties that restrict trade and financial transactions), unfreezes Iranian assets, and pays compensation for war damage, including war reparations. Iran's leadership believes that sooner or later the United States will have to accept their control over the strait AP News.
The broader context here is a conflict now in its sixth month, with multiple diplomatic attempts having collapsed. The US and Israel launched the war with Iran on February 28. In April, the White House announced a ceasefire under what it called 'Operation Epic Fury,' but by mid-July a Memorandum of Understanding signed in June had dissolved, with both sides renewing attacks. Iran tightened its grip on the strait throughout April, warning mariners that the route was closed, and by late July declared it remained in control and was not seeking talks after Trump halted bombing.
Meanwhile, Iran has pursued separate talks with Oman on the future management of the strait. Those discussions do not include Washington and have largely paused wider US-Iran peace negotiations. A proposed Hormuz deal reported on August 5 would give Iran control of inbound traffic through the strait, which sources described as a major concession to Tehran.
The maritime picture is also growing more complex on a second front. On August 11, a US Navy military helicopter struck a Panama-flagged cargo vessel in the strait. The same day, Yemen-based Houthis opened a new front in the war with attacks on vessels in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, killing six people in an attack on an Egyptian-owned ship, the first deaths from such an attack.
Shipping data paints a grim trajectory. Kpler reported that Hormuz crossings fell 70 percent after the brief truce, with 90 percent of remaining traffic now using an unrecognised Iranian route. The firm estimated that recovery to normal traffic levels will not come until 2027. Windward had reported as early as March 8 that GPS and AIS interference in the region intensified sharply, affecting more than 1,650 vessels. (AIS, or Automatic Identification System, is a tracking system used by ships to broadcast their position.) The WTO Strait of Hormuz Trade Tracker noted a cautious restart in late June following the MOU signing, but that brief window has since closed.
The standoff leaves commercial shipping caught between a US-enforced blockade and an Iranian government demanding full sanctions relief and reparations before restoring transit. With the Houthis now active in the Bab al-Mandab as well, vessels face simultaneous disruption at both ends of the Arabian Peninsula — the strait to the east and the Bab al-Mandab to the west.
In my view, the parties appear locked into positions that leave little room for a near-term breakthrough. Washington asserts total military control, Tehran conditions any reopening on sweeping economic and political concessions, and the diplomatic track has fragmented into bilateral channels that exclude the principal belligerent. Each side seems to be betting that the other will blink first, but six months in, neither has.
