Pop Mart's Growth Is Slowing to a Crawl — Here's What the Numbers Say

Pop Mart International Group is expected to report a sharp slowdown in first-half 2026 revenue growth, with analysts now projecting just 1% revenue growth for the full year 2026 before a tentative recovery to 14% in 2027 (The Business Times).

A 1% growth rate means the company's revenue would essentially flatline for the year. That is a dramatic change for a brand that became one of China's most closely watched consumer companies, powered largely by the popularity of Labubu, a collectible toy character. The 14% forecast for 2027 implies analysts expect some rebound, but from a far lower base than the growth rates that defined Pop Mart's rise.

In June, Bloomberg reported that Pop Mart had pushed back against being called a one-hit wonder as its global sales slowed (Bloomberg). Chief Operating Officer Si De told Bloomberg that non-Labubu items accounted for roughly 50% of Pop Mart's total US revenue last year, a figure the company offered as evidence that its product lineup extends beyond a single character.

That 50% figure is the most consequential number in this story. It tells investors that even at the height of Labubu's cultural popularity, half of US revenue already came from other products. If that mix holds or improves, it provides a quantitative floor — a measurable lower bound — for the worst-case scenario in which Labubu-specific demand keeps falling.

The risk is that the non-Labubu half is itself riding the same collectible-toy consumption wave and could slow down in tandem rather than serving as an independent cushion. The available data does not break down non-Labubu revenue by character or product line, so investors cannot independently assess whether that 50% is concentrated in one or two other properties or spread across a genuinely broad portfolio.

The gap between the Bloomberg report in June and The Business Times report in August is itself informative. In June, Pop Mart was publicly contesting the one-hit-wonder narrative while acknowledging slowing global sales. By August, analyst consensus had crystallized into a concrete 1% growth projection for 2026, suggesting that the slowdown observed mid-year has not reversed and may have intensified. The shift from a qualitative defense of the business model to a quantitative analyst consensus near zero growth is a meaningful deterioration in the market's assessment.

For investors and analysts tracking Pop Mart, three variables are worth watching in the upcoming results. First, the actual first-half 2026 revenue figure and whether it confirms or undershoots the trajectory implied by the full-year 1% projection. Second, the geographic split, particularly whether US revenue, where the diversification data exists, is growing or contracting. Third, any management commentary on product mix, and whether the non-Labubu share of revenue is expanding as Labubu-specific sales decelerate, which would support the diversification argument, or whether it is shrinking in tandem, which would undermine it.

The 2027 forecast of 14% growth suggests analysts are not modeling a structural decline but rather a cyclical trough — a temporary low point in a business cycle. Whether that recovery materializes depends on factors the verified facts do not specify: new character launches, geographic expansion timelines, and the durability of consumer demand for collectible toys in a slowing economy. What the facts do establish is that the market's expectations have reset sharply, and Pop Mart's management faces a credibility test in demonstrating that the business has legs beyond a single character franchise.