Mixed Economic Signals: Tourism Up, Unemployment Rising
New Zealand welcomed 3.6 million overseas visitors in the year to June 2026 — about 300,000 more than the previous year, according to Stats NZ figures referenced in an RNZ report on 20 August. The same data shows a record number of Australian visitors and a large rise in Chinese tourists. Tourism is New Zealand's second-biggest export earner. RNZ
On the construction side, Stats NZ reported one million cubic metres of ready-mixed concrete poured in the June 2026 quarter, up 12 percent on the same quarter a year earlier. Concrete volumes are a widely used leading indicator — they tend to rise before broader construction activity shows up in other data. The concrete figures came out on 12 August as part of a dense run of Stats NZ releases. Building consents data for June 2026 followed on 3 August, and livestock slaughtering figures for the same month on 6 August.
The labour market tells a different story. Stats NZ reported an unemployment rate of 5.6 percent for the June 2026 quarter, released 5 August. That is above the roughly 5.5 percent economists had expected, with forecasts published the same day by RNZ noting the rate was expected to push to a near 11-year high. RNZ Around 8,000 more people were in long-term unemployment in the June 2026 quarter than in the same quarter in 2025, according to Stats NZ. Stats NZ
Retail spending has softened too. Stats NZ reported that electronic card spending across retail industries fell 1.4 percent, or $98 million, in June 2026 compared with May 2026. Stats NZ But the Infometrics June 2026 Quarterly Economic Monitor, reported by RNZ on 19 August, suggests overall economic activity rose 2.6 percent in the June quarter. RNZ So the wider economic indicators point up while household spending and labour market data point the other way.
Andrew Kelleher, executive director of financial services company Shaw and Partners, discussed the tourism and concrete data alongside the broader picture in the 20 August RNZ report. He framed the visitor arrivals and construction activity as signs the economy is inching towards a more prosperous period, even as unemployment and retail spending data complicate that view.
Stats NZ has also released several other datasets recently. International migration and travel statistics for June 2026 both came out on 14 August. Selected price indexes for July 2026 and electronic card transactions for July 2026 were released on 17 August. National population estimates at 30 June 2026 and births and deaths for the year ended June 2026 were published on 18 August. Business price indexes for the June 2026 quarter came out on 19 August.
The broader context here is one of conflicting signals heading into what is likely to be a politically charged period. The Infometrics monitor pointing to 2.6 percent quarterly growth, record Australian visitor numbers, and a 12 percent jump in concrete volumes all suggest momentum in tourism and construction. But a 5.6 percent unemployment rate with rising long-term unemployment, and a 1.4 percent drop in retail card spending, tell a household-side story that is still under pressure. For a government that has staked its credibility on economic management, these are not easy numbers to hold together in a single message.
Economists had expected unemployment to edge up to around 5.5 percent. The actual 5.6 percent result came in slightly above that, and the 8,000 increase in long-term unemployment suggests the stickiness in the labour market is concentrated among people already out of work for extended periods rather than in fresh redundancies. Whether the pickup in activity flagged by Infometrics flows through to hiring in the September quarter is the question Treasury and the Reserve Bank will be watching. The concrete data suggests at least one part of the real economy is building.
