Tropical Storm Moke Heads for Hawaii as Big Island Still Reels From Hurricane Lala
Tropical Storm Moke was tracking westward toward Hawaii's southern islands on the evening of Saturday, August 22, 2026, set to bring heavy rain and strong winds to a region still recovering from Hurricane Lala, which had passed through days earlier. The National Weather Service reported the storm was gaining strength as it moved forward, with deep convection — the towering thunderstorms that power a tropical cyclone — growing in both intensity and reach during the morning hours. Air Force Hurricane Hunters were actively investigating the system. The Guardian
As of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's forecast discussion issued on August 22, Moke carried an initial intensity of 40 knots (about 46 mph) and had changed little in organization over the preceding several hours, moving west-northwestward. A separate public advisory placed maximum sustained winds near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The NWS High Seas Forecast for the Central North Pacific located the storm near 15.1N 150.8W with maximum sustained winds of 50 knots and gusts to 60 knots, with tropical storm-force winds extending 70 nautical miles through the northern half of the storm and 40 nautical miles through the southern half. NWS High Seas Forecast
No coastal watches or warnings were in effect early Saturday morning, though the NWS urged residents to closely monitor the storm's progress. The NWS forecast Moke to track across the southern offshore waters of Hawaii through early Monday morning, moving east to west south of the main island chain. NWS Marine Forecast
The rainfall forecast was the most concerning element. NWS meteorologist Casey Oswant predicted 5 to 10 inches (13 to 25 cm) of rain for the southeast and windward sides of the Big Island over the weekend, with up to 15 inches (38 cm) in isolated areas. The rest of the Hawaiian chain was expected to receive 1 to 2 inches (2 to 5 cm), though parts of east Maui could see up to 4 inches (10 cm). The NWS forecast a period of heavy rain for the Big Island from late Saturday night through Monday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center warned that the rainfall could cause dangerous rip currents, life-threatening flooding, and mudslides, especially in steep areas and where the ground remains saturated from Hurricane Lala. The Guardian
That saturation is the critical variable. Hurricane Lala had already delivered heavy precipitation across the same regions now in Moke's path. The NWS explicitly flagged that flooding and mudslides could occur, particularly in areas that already received heavy precipitation during Lala. Think of soil like a sponge: once it has absorbed one storm's worth of water, it has far less capacity to soak up another. That raises the risk of rapid runoff and slope failure well beyond what Moke's rainfall totals might suggest on their own.
Hawaii Governor Josh Green said in a Saturday video that Hurricane Lala had already caused at least $43 million in damaged infrastructure on the Big Island and another $4.6 million in damage to homes. Those figures are the baseline against which Moke's impact will be measured. Any additional flooding or wind damage compounds an already strained recovery effort, and the Big Island's steep volcanic terrain amplifies the mudslide risk the NWS identified. The Guardian
Moke's trajectory has been tracked since its earliest stages. Tropical Depression Two-C strengthened into Tropical Storm Moke at 11:00 AM HST on August 21, 2026, as confirmed by the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency. Earlier in the week, most computer forecast models had kept the developing system south of Hawaii, while the Honolulu NWS office warned of possible impacts. The NHC maintained a text advisory archive for Moke containing Forecast Advisory, Public Advisory, Forecast Discussion, and Wind Speed Probabilities documents, with advisories issued beginning Thursday, August 20. Hawaii EMA
The forecast track keeping Moke south of the island chain does not mean the impact will be minimal. The storm's wind field and rain bands extend well north of its center, and the Big Island's southern and eastern exposures sit directly in the path of the strongest precipitation bands. The absence of formal coastal watches or warnings as of early Saturday does not rule out inland hazards, which are the primary concern with this system. The compound risk from saturated terrain, fresh infrastructure damage, and an active tropical cyclone all converge on the same geography.
The broader context here is that the relevant question is not whether Moke makes direct landfall but how much additional water the already compromised ground can absorb. For emergency managers and infrastructure operators on the Big Island, the operational calculus is straightforward. The $43 million in infrastructure damage from Lala means systems that are partially degraded or offline. Additional rainfall at the volumes forecast by Oswant could overwhelm temporary repairs, accelerate erosion of compromised roadways and drainage systems, and trigger slope failures in areas where vegetation has been stripped or soil structure weakened. Maui, while forecast to receive less rainfall, has its own terrain vulnerabilities, particularly in east Maui where orographic lift — the process by which moist air is forced upward by terrain, squeezing out precipitation — can concentrate rainfall. The storm's westward track means the window for preparation extends through Saturday evening before the heaviest bands arrive, but the effects will persist through Monday afternoon at minimum.
