Democratic Voters in Early 2028 Primary States Say Israel Is Committing Genocide in Gaza, Poll Finds
A YouGov poll conducted for the IMEU Policy Project and released on August 24, 2026, found that a majority of Democratic voters in the six states that will kick off the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar believe Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. The survey covered South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia. It also found strong support across all six states for sanctions — punitive economic measures aimed at pressuring a government to change its behavior — on Israel, and for enforcement of the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Al Jazeera
The findings land just as the Democratic Party has finalized its 2028 primary calendar. In August 2026, the party confirmed South Carolina as its first nomination contest, scheduled for January 22, followed by weekly elections in Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia. The polling therefore captured voter sentiment in exactly the states that will shape the earliest and most decisive phase of the next Democratic nominating contest. Al Jazeera
In Michigan, 80% of respondents answered yes when asked, "Do you believe Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians living in Gaza?" That figure rose to 91% among voters under age 45. In Nevada, 78% of Democratic voters shared that view, according to a separate report of the same poll data. Michigan's result aligns with its demographic and political profile as a state with a significant Arab American population that has been a focal point of Democratic organizing around Israel policy. Al Jazeera Common Dreams
On the question of military aid, the numbers were equally stark. In South Carolina, the state that will vote first, 52% of respondents said they oppose selling arms to Israel — a position that, if translated into policy, would amount to an arms embargo, meaning a formal halt to weapons sales. Only 2% in South Carolina said they favor military support for Israel. The IMEU Policy Project's own poll page reported that on whether the US should provide weapons to Israel, 4% of respondents in one surveyed state said yes, while 31% said they did not know. In Nevada, 74% of voters said the US should end its support for Israel altogether. Al Jazeera IMEU Policy Project Common Dreams
IMEU Policy Project, which describes itself as a think tank supporting Palestinians' human rights, commissioned the survey. Hamid Bendaas, a spokesperson for the organization, said the poll shows that support for Israel in the Democratic base "has become negligible" and that voters "back strong policies against Israel such as sanctions." Al Jazeera
The survey's release fits into a longer trajectory of erosion in Democratic support for Israel. An Arab Center DC event page from January 2026 noted that 77% of Democrats nationally said Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. Reuters coverage in August 2026 reported that only 16% of Democrats backed continued military and economic aid to Israel, while 57% opposed it. Arab Center DC Reuters
The polling also lands against the backdrop of an active, if informal, 2028 Democratic primary. Reuters reported in July 2026 that Democratic contenders were already taking early steps toward potential presidential bids. According to Arab Center DC, all three rival candidates for the Democratic nomination have said Israel's Gaza war constitutes genocide and want to end offensive military sales, with two of them calling for cutting off US military aid entirely. One candidate, El-Sayed, sharply criticized US military aid to Israel, called the war in Gaza a genocide, and said money for Israel would be cut. Reuters Arab Center DC Arab Center DC
The broader context here is the degree to which Israel policy has moved from a peripheral foreign policy question to a defining fault line within the Democratic coalition. The poll's state-level granularity matters because these six contests will sequentially determine early delegate allocation and momentum. A candidate who aligns with the positions expressed in this survey — sanctions, an arms embargo, ICC warrant enforcement — will find a receptive audience. A candidate who does not will face a base whose views, at least in these states, have moved decisively.
One consideration when weighing these results: IMEU Policy Project is an advocacy organization, not a neutral observer. YouGov's methodology and sampling are reputable, but the commissioning entity's framing and the specific wording of survey questions can shape results. The genocide question, for instance, asks respondents to apply a legal term that international courts have spent years adjudicating. Still, the direction of the data is consistent across multiple sources and time frames, and the gap between Democratic base opinion and longstanding US policy on Israel is wide and widening.
