Luxon draws a line on the Paris climate agreement, putting coalition partners on notice
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says New Zealand will stay in the Paris climate agreement no matter what happens in coalition talks after the election, directly rejecting the positions taken by his governing partners ACT and New Zealand First.
Speaking to RNZ's Morning Report, Luxon said he did not agree with how ACT and New Zealand First have approached the Paris Agreement and that staying in the accord would not be traded away in coalition negotiations. ACT says New Zealand should leave the agreement unless it sets new, more "realistic" emissions targets. New Zealand First has raised doubts about New Zealand's Paris commitment as it stands. RNZ
The Paris Agreement is an international treaty, signed by 194 countries, that aims to keep global warming to no more than 1.5°C. Under it, New Zealand has pledged to halve its emissions by 2030.
Luxon's declaration sets up a clear dividing line within the governing bloc well before voters go to the polls. Until now, all three parties in the coalition have managed to paper over their substantive disagreement on climate through the wording of their coalition agreement.
Luxon framed leaving the Paris Agreement as both a diplomatic and an economic problem. Pulling out would put New Zealand in "bad company," he said. Only four countries have pulled out of the accord. The United States' withdrawal took effect on 27 January 2026, placing it alongside Iran, Libya, and Yemen as the only nations not party to the treaty, which has 194 parties as of that date. UNFCCC; CFR
He was blunt about the commercial consequences. Leaving would make New Zealand poorer, Luxon said, because New Zealand products would be "kicked off the shelves" overseas. It is the clearest signal yet from the Prime Minister that he sees climate commitments as tied to trade access, not just an environmental question.
New Zealand's pledge to halve emissions by 2030 carries a cost. Treasury estimates it could cost the country up to $5 billion in overseas carbon credits — essentially paying other countries for emissions reductions to help meet our target. The government insists it will not send billions of dollars offshore. The gap between Treasury's cost estimate and the government's position on offshore purchasing has yet to be reconciled in any public fiscal update, and Luxon did not detail on Morning Report how the target would be met domestically without using international carbon markets. RNZ
Luxon did acknowledge the agreement faces systemic pressure. There would need to be "a reckoning" on the Paris Agreement, he said, because around three quarters of the countries signed up to it are off track to meet their commitments. The Paris Agreement calls for emissions to be reduced by 45% by 2030 and to reach net zero by 2050 to keep global warming to no more than 1.5°C. United Nations
The timing is pointed. Luxon is heading to the Micronesian islands of Palau for the Pacific Islands Forum leaders' meeting with heads of government. The Forum has identified climate change as the single greatest threat to the Pacific. A firm public stance on Paris in the days before he sits down with Pacific leaders gives Luxon a position to carry into those talks that aligns with the Forum's own framing, whatever the domestic tensions within his coalition.
For the coalition parties, the politics are sharpened by the numbers. ACT's call to withdraw unless targets are reset and New Zealand First's scepticism are now directly at odds with a stated bottom line from the Prime Minister they sit alongside in government. If the election returns a Parliament in which National again needs one or both parties to form a government, the Paris Agreement will be one of the first items where the coalition agreement either holds or breaks.
The $5 billion Treasury estimate gives the debate a fiscal dimension that goes beyond signalling. A government refusing to purchase offshore credits while holding to a 2030 target that implies them will need to show where the domestic emissions reductions come from. Luxon has not yet done that in detail. His Morning Report comments lock in the commitment without resolving the cost question.
What has shifted here is the political cost of staying vague. By calling Paris non-negotiable on the record, Luxon has removed the option of leaving the issue to be quietly traded in a post-election coalition agreement. ACT and New Zealand First now face a choice: accept the bottom line publicly, or contest it in the campaign proper. Either way, the gap between the three governing parties is now on the table for voters to see.
