National Party leader Christopher Luxon has said it is "unlikely" National will do business with the Opportunity Party, stopping short of an outright ruling but leaving little room for ambiguity about his position.

Speaking at his weekly post-Cabinet media conference on 27 July 2026, Luxon was pressed repeatedly on whether National would enter a governing arrangement with TOP, which has been polling close to the 5% threshold for several weeks. Under MMP, a party needs either 5% of the nationwide party vote or to win a single electorate seat to get into Parliament. "We wouldn't be in business with people who want to increase taxes," he said, pointing to the party's flagship policies: a universal basic income of up to $370 a week, a 1.75% annual tax on urban land values, and a 0.5% tax on rural land.

Luxon went further, characterising a vote for the Opportunity Party as "a vote for Labour and the Greens." He described it as his "very, very strong position" that National would not work with TOP. When journalists pressed on whether that meant National would not enter any governing arrangement with the party, Luxon said it would not be a surprise that National did not want to "do business" with Opportunity. RNZ

The remarks come as TOP sits just below the parliamentary threshold in multiple recent polls. The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll placed the party at 4.7%. A separate poll recorded 4.6%, and a third poll reported on 24 July also showed TOP just shy of 5%. The party has surged in polling alongside National's decline; National slumped to its lowest level of support since Luxon became leader, according to an RNZ poll reported by the New Zealand Herald on 13 July. NZ Herald

TOP, led by Qiulae Wong, has positioned itself as willing to work with either major party. On 1 July, alongside launching its economic policy platform, the party explicitly said it "would be happy" to go into coalition with National. Stuff

Luxon's comments effectively shut the door on that overture, though the deliberate framing as "unlikely" rather than a categorical refusal leaves a sliver of room. The distinction matters under MMP: a party leader can publicly distance themselves from a potential partner during the campaign while preserving flexibility for post-election negotiations if the numbers demand it. Whether TOP clears 5% or wins an electorate seat determines whether the question is even live after election night.

RNZ has asked the Opportunity Party for comment on Luxon's remarks.

The broader context here is the squeeze on National's vote. With the party polling at its lowest under Luxon's leadership and TOP drawing support from voters who might otherwise lean centre-right, the calculation for Luxon is not straightforward. Dismissing TOP outright risks alienating voters currently parking their support there. But TOP's policy platform, anchored by a land value tax and a universal basic income, is fundamentally incompatible with National's tax-and-spend posture, and Luxon's framing makes that incompatibility the defining message rather than the personalities involved.

Luxon dismissed leadership speculation last November and vowed to lead National into the 2026 election, according to the New Zealand Herald. NZ Herald The leadership question and the coalition-management question are now entangled: a leader whose party is polling at historic lows needs to both shore up the base and manage the threat that a resurgent minor party on the centre-right bleeds votes that could prove wasted if TOP falls short of threshold.

For those watching Parliament and the campaign, the key signal is that Luxon is choosing to campaign against TOP rather than cultivate it as a potential partner. That is a different posture from the one TOP itself has adopted, and it puts the onus on TOP to either clear 5% or accept irrelevance to government formation. The gap between "unlikely" and "ruled out" is the only corridor left open, and it is narrow.