What a GOP Pollster Said About Republican Voters Before the Midterms

NPR's Morning Edition aired an interview on September 14, 2026, with Republican pollster Jim Hobart about the outlook of GOP voters ahead of the midterms. Leila Fadel did the interview. NPR published it the same day under the title 'Republican pollster discusses GOP voters' outlook as midterms approach.' NPR

Hobart is a pollster with Public Opinion Strategies. The firm lists him on its leadership roster. Public Opinion Strategies It also keeps a partner biography page for him. Public Opinion Strategies Hobart and Micah Roberts were promoted from vice presidents to partners in February 2013, the firm said. Public Opinion Strategies He has been a partner since that 2013 promotion.

Only about 50 of the 435 races for the U.S. House are expected to be competitive on the November 3, 2026 ballot. Reuters Most other seats are rated safe for one party. A Reuters/Ipsos poll published in December 2025 found Republicans hold an edge with older voters. Reuters

The broader context here is how campaign professionals read a September interview like this. National mood numbers are read through local conditions in each district, the strength of candidates, and estimates of who will vote. A pollster speaking to a general audience often stays broad — like a national weather report. Campaign staffs turn that broad view into voter lists for turnout and persuasion and choices about where to spend on outreach.

Looking to the weeks between now and November, those two points shape practical choices. With most House seats safe, parties must triage a small battlefield. They must decide which incumbents need extra help, which challengers have a real chance, and where their own polls support late spending on television, mail and field. Republicans' edge with older voters matters because older voters often vote at high rates in midterms. That shapes views of who will vote on their own and who will need steady outreach.

In my view, this kind of interview works less as a forecast and more as a window into how Republicans see their own voters. Hobart advises Republican candidates and groups on message testing and voter targeting. His read on GOP voters shows how the party's strategists see their coalition's motivation. For Democrats and nonpartisan analysts, the value is in comparing that self-view with independent polls and the actual list of competitive seats. The final result will turn on work in those districts.