Democrats Hold 12-Point Lead on 2026 Congressional Ballot, Marist Poll Finds

Registered voters said they were more likely to vote for a Democrat for Congress than a Republican, 53% to 41%, in the September NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Sept. 23, 2026. NPR The margin is 12 points.

This question is called the generic ballot because it asks about parties, not named candidates. Think of it as a national temperature check rather than a forecast for any one district.

President Donald Trump's job approval was 39% approve and 59% disapprove among registered voters. Fifty-three percent said they strongly disapproved, which the pollsters said was the highest strong-disapproval share since the question was first asked in 2017. Trump's favorability stood at 37%, down from 44% in January 2025.

The poll asked voters directly how much Trump factored into their House and Senate choices. A 45% plurality said their 2026 choice is a vote against Trump. Plurality means the largest group when no option tops 50%. That group included four in five Democrats and about half of independents.

About a quarter of voters said their vote is about supporting Trump. That group included 59% of Republicans and 51% of voters who backed Trump in 2024. About a third of voters said Trump is not much of a factor in their congressional choice. Forty-one percent of that group are Republican.

On issue handling, 41% said Democrats would do a better job on immigration versus 38% who said Republicans would. The pollsters said that was a reversal from February 2024, when 42% picked Republicans and 30% picked Democrats. More voters also said Democrats would do a better job than Republicans on gas prices, the economy and foreign policy.

A majority said it is more important to back candidates with new ideas who will bring change than those with experience and a proven record.

The national survey interviewed 1,280 respondents on Sept. 14-15 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. That range means the true result in the population could be about 4 points higher or lower. Interviews were conducted via live caller, text and online.

The result continues a Democratic advantage on the generic ballot that Marist has tracked since last fall. Marist titled its November 2025 midterm outlook release 'Democrats with Double-Digit Lead on 2026 Generic Ballot.' Marist Poll That November survey of 1,443 U.S. adults, conducted Nov. 10-13, 2025, carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 points for all adults and plus or minus 3.1 points for 1,291 registered voters. It was conducted via phone with live interviewers, text or online.

In that November poll, 57% of Americans said lowering prices should be the Trump administration's top priority. Sixteen percent said controlling immigration, 9% said reducing crime, 7% said ending the war between Ukraine and Russia, 6% said maintaining peace between Israel and Gaza and 4% said eliminating drug traffic from Latin America. Sixty-nine percent of Democrats and 62% of independents picked lowering prices, while a 40% plurality of Republicans picked lowering prices and 34% picked controlling immigration.

The November poll also recorded confidence in institutions. Twenty percent expressed a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in Congress, while 80% had not very much or no confidence at all. Thirty-eight percent had confidence in the presidency, 38% in the Supreme Court, 35% in the Republican Party, 29% in the Democratic Party and 25% in the media. Marist said perceptions of Congress, the Republican Party and the Supreme Court had changed little, while confidence in the Democratic Party and the media was lower than two years ago and confidence in the presidency had declined since 2018.

Interim readings pointed in the same direction. In May 2026, NPR reported Trump at 37% approval and 59% disapproval in the Marist poll, which it described as the worst score in the Marist poll in either of Trump's terms. NPR Marist lists the September 2026 midterm elections survey as its Latest Poll dated Sept. 23, 2026. Marist Poll The organization said it started as a classroom project in 1978.

The broader context here is that a 12-point generic ballot lead in September does not translate directly into House seats. District lines, candidate quality, turnout and the large share of voters who say Trump is not much of a factor will shape the outcome. What the data do establish is motivation. Opposition to the sitting president is consolidating Democrats and a large share of independents, while support for the president is consolidating a smaller, heavily Republican bloc. The shift on immigration and the economy, two issues Republicans have led on in prior Marist surveys, gives Democrats more ground to contest than they held in early 2024. For Republicans, the open question is whether the voters who discount Trump can be reached on other terms.