Fed Likely to Lift Rates to 3.75%-4.00% in September
Markets priced an 88.5% chance the Federal Open Market Committee lifts its federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00% from 3.50%-3.75% at its September 15-16, 2026 meeting. A quarter point is 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage points. For households, that can mean slightly more interest on savings and higher costs for credit cards, auto loans and new mortgages. Economists polled ahead of the meeting centered on the same 25-basis-point move, according to reporting published September 14. Reuters
Fed funds futures late on September 11 implied an over 80% chance of that quarter-point hike. The starting range was 3.50%-3.75%. The last increase was in July 2023. Reuters
Governor Christopher Waller said his September decision would depend heavily on August inflation data. Bloomberg That is the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, a monthly read on what households pay. Fed officials' year-end rate projections sat between 3.6% and 4.1%, as reported July 29. Advisor Perspectives A move to 3.75%-4.00% would sit in the upper half of that band.
The calendar rules are standard. The Committee holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year, plus other meetings as needed. Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the prior meeting. Committee membership changes at the first regularly scheduled meeting of the year. Minutes of regular meetings are released three weeks after the decision. The calendar already lists a two-day meeting for January 25-26, 2028. Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve published a Summary of Economic Projections dated June 17, 2026, following a prior release dated March 18, 2026. Federal Reserve The calendars page lists the 2026 meetings and notes which meetings include a Summary of Economic Projections. The materials show the median forecast, the 70% confidence interval, and participants' views on uncertainty and risks around the forecasts. The July 5, 2024 Monetary Policy Report to Congress included Part 3: Summary of Economic Projections. Federal Reserve
The broader context here is a Committee asked to restart hikes after a long hold. What is known: the starting range, the September dates, and the market-implied probability. What is priced in: a quarter point now, with at least one more move discussed by economists polled before the meeting. Those are different things. Futures can price near-term execution well while misreading how the Fed will react next.
Looking at what this means for rate-path analysis, focus shifts from the 25 basis points to spread and destination. A 3.75%-4.00% range against a 3.6%-4.1% year-end band leaves two questions. First, whether the median moves up or the outer forecasts do the work. Second, whether the 70% confidence interval widens. Because Waller tied his vote to August CPI, the new forecasts will need to explain lasting inflation, not just the price level.
