Gold Slips as Dollar Rises and a Fed Hike Looks Almost Certain
Gold futures traded lower in an 0852 ET update on September 15 as the dollar gained amid higher expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase that week, according to WSJ. The piece ran under the title 'Gold Futures Pressured By Dollar Gains, Rate Expectations' in the commodities-futures section. That left prices unsettled just before the September 15-16 meeting.
Bloomberg put spot gold, metal bought for immediate delivery, up 0.2% to just above $4,300 an ounce in the same session. Its coverage was titled 'Gold Holds Losses as Higher Oil Stokes September Rate-Hike Bets'. Markets were pricing about a 95% chance of a Federal Reserve hike amid higher oil. The repricing was fast and gold was still holding losses.
The September 15-16 date anchors near-term rates, what traders call the front end. On September 3, traders saw about a 54% chance of a hike at that meeting, according to Reuters. By September 7, traders were pricing a 58.4% chance of a hike at the same meeting, according to that day's Asharq Al-Awsat report. By September 15, pricing from swaps, contracts tied to future rates, pointed to almost full pricing.
Reuters reported on September 3 that gold futures settled 2.8% higher at $4,539.9 after comments from Fed Governor Waller. On September 7, Reuters reported spot gold down 0.4% at $4,410.55 per ounce, and gold down 0.5% to $4,456.40 in the same report. Asharq Al-Awsat reported gold down 0.6% at $4,402.86 per ounce on September 7. Those reports tied the pullback to a jobs report lifting hike bets and putting inflation data, the pace of overall price rises, in focus.
Bloomberg reported bullion fell as much as 1.1% before paring losses in early July as traders assessed the Fed rate outlook, with swap traders pricing a 25% chance of a hike. Reuters reported on July 16 that spot gold was down 1.9% at $3,984.64 per ounce amid escalating Middle East tensions, with U.S. gold futures settling at $3,992.10, down 1.5%. Those July levels were below September levels.
Reuters reported spot gold down 1.5% at $5,091.62 per ounce at 1:40 p.m. ET on March 9 amid a stronger dollar, and had reported in September 2025 that gold rose nearly 2% to an all-time high on expectations of further U.S. rate cuts and safe-haven demand. Two undated WSJ background notes were also listed. One 1419 GMT update had New York gold futures down 0.5% to $4,452.70 a troy ounce under the title 'Gold Under Pressure With This Week's Inflation Data in Focus'. Another 1357 ET update had gold futures ending a three-session losing streak as Treasury yields, the return on government bonds, eased.
The broader context here is important for savers and borrowers. Gold pays no interest, so when higher hike odds lift real yields, or bond returns after inflation, and the dollar, holding gold looks costly next to interest-paying cash. Higher oil keeps upside risk on headline inflation, the total measure of price rises, which can keep near-term policy bets tight. With odds moving from the mid-50s to around 95% in less than two weeks, attention turns to the statement language, the dot path showing where officials expect rates to go, and the press conference tone, and whether spot can stay above recent levels if short-term yields fall.
