Greens Sit Four Points Behind Labour in Cities, New Poll Finds
The Green Party is four points behind Labour in urban constituencies, the seats that cover Britain's big cities, according to new polling by ThinkLabour published on 16 September. The survey puts the Greens in close contention in major cities. The Guardian
Since the 2024 general election, Green support in major cities is up 12 points, while Labour's share of the vote is down 20 points. ThinkLabour projects the Greens could take as many as 40 seats if that urban result was repeated at the next election.
ThinkLabour is described as a Labour-linked think tank, a policy research group with close ties to Andy Burnham's government. Its former chief executive Alison Phillips is now Burnham's chief of staff, and Christabel Cooper is one of the report's authors. The fieldwork was done as Burnham was about to take office in Downing Street, so it does not capture the full effect of the 'Burnham bounce' in support after he arrived.
The report says the shift from Labour to the Greens is larger among voters who are financially struggling. It says urban voters felt they did not know what Labour's values were, in part because of measures such as cutting winter fuel payments under Keir Starmer. The authors advise Labour politicians to dial down direct attacks on the Greens, warning it could look like 'kicking a puppy'.
Zack Polanski is challenging Labour in the Holborn and St Pancras byelection next month, a one-seat vote held outside a general election. The seat is a core urban area. An earlier MRP estimate in January from More in Common, a model that projects results seat by seat, put the Greens above 30% of the vote in 16 seats. The Guardian
The broader context here is concentration. A 20-point Labour fall paired with a 12-point Green rise in cities points to voters switching directly from Labour to Green, rather than scattering to many parties, with financially struggling voters moving fastest. Under first-past-the-post, the system where the most-voted candidate in each seat wins, that kind of city focus can turn second places into wins out of proportion to the national vote. Still, a projection that repeats a city-only result across the country is a ceiling. It is not a forecast. Timing also matters, because fieldwork before Burnham took office leaves any lift for a new leader unmeasured.
Looking at what this means for Labour's next moves, the report's advice on tactics is as notable as the four-point gap. It urges restraint over confrontation, on the grounds that heavy attacks could build sympathy for the smaller party. It frames values as the deeper problem, with winter fuel cited as a reason urban voters are unsure what Labour stands for. In my view, Holborn and St Pancras will be read less for who wins than for the margin, who turns out and who switches. A narrow Labour hold with further Green gains among struggling voters would leave the dilemma in place. A clear Labour recovery would give weight to the bounce caveat. Either way, the poll frames the challenge as urban and economic, centred on voters under most pressure on living standards and least clear on Labour's purpose.
