Australia Sticks to 225,000 Migration Forecast and Tightens Temporary Visas
Australia's Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke has rejected calls for sharp cuts to net overseas migration, saying Labor will make its existing migration policy work better.
Speaking in a long-awaited address to the National Press Club on Thursday, Burke said promises to slash net overseas migration will "trash Australian services and trash the Australian economy" The Guardian. He stuck to the government's forecast of 225,000 net overseas migrants by 2027-28. Net overseas migration, the difference between arrivals and departures, has been viewed as a budget forecast, he said, while in the last couple of years people have talked about it as a budget target.
The target is temporary visas. The government will tighten rules for international students and backpackers, and plans to take steps to remove visa overstayers ABC. Labor plans to restrict international students from bringing family members to Australia and to cap longer backpacker stays. The overhaul, delayed from earlier in the year, is directed at temporary visa holders rather than the permanent intake.
On numbers, Burke said the next stage of migration policies are designed to deliver the Net Overseas Migration forecasts in the Budget Department of Home Affairs. Officials said the measures will reduce net overseas migration to 245,000 this financial year SBS. That follows a year to March figure of 292,100, against a budget forecast for Net Overseas Migration for 2025-26 of 295,000 The Conversation. Earlier departmental data put Net Overseas Migration at 301,000, down more than 45 per cent from the post-Covid peak in 2023.
Burke framed the choice as calibration, not closure, like adjusting a tap rather than turning off the water. "We need immigration. We just need to make sure that it is targeted for the needs of Australia in numbers and across the different categories that work for our economy." He pointed to construction trades as an example, saying that in both Sydney and Melbourne, close to two-thirds of plasterers were born overseas. He has previously said a link to housing makes complete sense for some visa classes.
The political contest is over the headline number. One Nation has committed to lowering net overseas migration to 130,000 a year. The Coalition has proposed net overseas migration of between 150,000 and 170,000. Burke held the line at 225,000. The number stays.
Business groups backed the method. Bran Black, chief executive of the Business Council of Australia, welcomed the government's efforts to "restore integrity to the migration system". Black said the starting point for migration policy should not be a number to cut to, but what the economy genuinely needs.
The broader context here is a shift in how migration is governed in Australia, from aggregate caps to visa-level enforcement. For practitioners, the operative details are student dependants, working holiday maker duration, and overstayer compliance. Those levers affect net overseas migration without changing the permanent program settings, and they place administrative discretion at the centre. Integrity, in this usage, means closing rorts and aligning temporary entrants with skills needs for a strong economy.
Looking at what this means for the debate ahead, the government is betting that delivery will defuse pressure. If arrivals continue to fall toward forecast and overstayer removals are visible, Labor can argue the system is under control without endorsing lower targets. If not, rivals have simple numbers ready. For diplomats, educators, employers and regional partners who track Australian mobility, the near-term signal is tighter temporary entry and closer scrutiny of compliance, not a closed door.
