Coalition Plan to Hold Migration at 100,000 for Two Years, Then Lift It
Angus Taylor has announced a Coalition plan to cut net overseas migration to 100,000 for the first two years of a Coalition government. The proposal sets that near-term limit before allowing higher intakes later in the term, with a parallel cut to temporary visa numbers and changes to student and humanitarian pathways. Guardian Australia
As reported on 6 October 2026, net overseas migration would sit at 100,000 in each of 2028-29 and 2029-30. Net overseas migration is arrivals minus departures. It would then rise to 130,000 in the third year and up to 160,000 in year four. The Conversation That early level was described as a cut of two-thirds to 100,000 a year. The Nightly
The plan would reduce the number of temporary visa holders by about 650,000 over four years. That is more than a third of current temporary visa holders. Guardian Australia
Central to the temporary intake is the end of temporary graduate visas, which let overseas graduates stay and work after study. Holders would fall from 271,200 to 10,000 by 2031-32. Shadow home affairs minister Jonno Duniam said any graduate wanting to remain in Australia would have to return home and apply for a separate temporary visa.
Duniam said there would be a four-year transitional phase before abolition. Some workers in priority areas such as health, education and some regional areas would be allowed to remain during the transition.
The plan also includes cuts to international student, bridging and temporary protection visas and would halve humanitarian places. Bridging visas cover people waiting for another visa decision. On housing, the Coalition pledged to cap net overseas migration each year at the number of new homes completed in Australia, while its Our Plan document states a Taylor Coalition Government will cap net overseas migration each year below the number of new homes completed. Liberal Party The Coalition says it will establish a Future Generations Fund to pay down debt and invest in nation-building infrastructure including roads. The Liberal Party's 6 October 2026 Australia-first migration plan release refers to a prospective Taylor-Canavan Government.
Post-study work rights for Indian nationals have become a focal point. Phil Honeywood, chief executive of the International Education Association of Australia, warned the Coalition plan could breach Australia's free trade agreement with India. That agreement was signed by the former Morrison government.
An April 2022 letter from then Liberal trade minister Dan Tehan states Australia agreed to maintain post-study opportunities including up to 18 months for trade or diploma graduates, up to two years for bachelor graduates, up to three years for bachelor STEM and master's graduates, and up to four years for doctoral graduates. Under Australia-India ECTA side letters, Australia is to extend possible post-study stays from two to three years for Indian students graduating in Australia with bachelor degrees in STEM fields, and Australia will implement a Work and Holiday arrangement for Indian citizens for temporary stay of twelve calendar months. DFAT
A Coalition spokesperson told Guardian Australia there would be no treaty breach and the party would look at establishing different visa pathways for some graduates.
Universities Australia warned that the Coalition's proposed migration changes risk damaging Australia's economy, businesses and prosperity. It also warned the changes would have serious consequences for international students. The Liberal-National Coalition vowed the "biggest cut to immigration in the country's history" in its October 2026 migration policy announcement. Reuters
The broader context here is that permanent net intake and temporary stocks follow different rules. Net intake is arrivals minus departures. Temporary stocks reflect how long people stay, renewals, and moves between visa types. Think of net intake as the final score and visa stocks as the players on the field at one time. A sharp fall in both means action on new grants and on length of stay, which is why graduate, student, bridging and humanitarian categories matter beyond their headline numbers.
In my view, three pressure points will determine how practitioners judge this plan. The first is universities and regional labour markets, where enrolments, staffing in health and education, and employer use of bridging and graduate holders meet. The second is administrative capacity, since departures and offshore reapplication shift work to overseas posts and to any new temporary visa pathway. The third is treaty management, where side letters and ministerial assurances are read closely by partner governments and by affected applicants.
Looking at what this means for diplomacy and domestic politics, the India dimension deserves close attention. New Delhi will measure any replacement visa against the specific post-study periods already committed. Universities will measure it against enrolment pipelines. Voters will measure it against housing completions and service pressures. Each audience uses a different baseline.
