Denmark Warns Russia Could Attempt Limited Attack on NATO Within Months
Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service warned on 24 September that Russia could launch a limited military attack against a NATO country in the coming months. The warning appeared in a document titled 'Assessment of the threat from Russia', according to The Guardian. The report does not forecast a full-scale war.
It outlines two uses of physical force short of invasion. One is long-range strikes against NATO infrastructure supporting Ukraine, such as supply hubs, transport routes and communications used to aid Kyiv. The report judges that a "low but growing risk." The other is a limited entry into a neighbouring country by a small number of troops, possibly operating without insignia, meaning without flags or patches that identify them. A full Russian invasion of a NATO country remains highly unlikely but cannot be ruled out.
The report said the aim of such actions would be to divert European resources away from supporting Ukraine and to deepen divisions within NATO if members failed to agree a collective response. A collective response means NATO members acting together after an attack on one of them. The underlying judgment in the Danish assessment is that Russia has become more willing to take risks. It notes that Russian drones and, in some cases, missiles have impacted NATO countries bordering Ukraine.
Danish intelligence also warned that Russia is expected to intensify hybrid attacks in the coming months. Hybrid means hostile actions below open war, such as hacking and sabotage. That includes destructive cyber-attacks that cripple societal functions like power or communications, and sabotage attacks with a high risk of casualties. Its Intelligence Outlook 2024 found that Russia's increased willingness to take risks had raised the likelihood of destructive cyber attacks.
A fire broke out overnight at a Starlink satellite station in the Masovian voivodeship in central Poland, disrupting internet access for institutions including the Ukrainian military. Polish Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski said the fire was deliberately designed to disable the station. He also said responsibility had not been established. Attribution is therefore unresolved.
On 15 September, a Russian frigate fired two flares that narrowly missed a Danish military helicopter in the Baltic Sea, according to Al Jazeera. Moscow subsequently warned Denmark to avoid "reckless" action after the incident.
Danish intelligence assessed it would take Russia six months to wage a local war against a neighbouring country, according to the Financial Times. Its Intelligence Outlook 2025, dated 9 February 2025, states that the military threat from Russia will increase in the coming years.
The broader context here is escalation management on both sides. Moscow has reasons to raise the cost of NATO's supply chain for Ukraine while staying below the line that would unite the alliance around a forceful reply. Long-range strikes, small entries without clear markings, cyber disruption and sabotage offer different levels of deniability. That makes joint decisions harder. That decision problem is what the Danish report points to.
Looking ahead for planners, the near-term questions are practical. Which supply hubs for Ukraine count as critical, and what level of damage or injuries would require a joint answer. How to identify who carried out hybrid incidents fast enough to shape a reply. And how to state clear warnings without promising automatic escalation. The Danish assessment works less as a prediction than as a prompt to decide in advance, since waiting until after an unclear attack makes splits more likely.
