Hurricane Nolo Nears Hawaii: Offshore Path, Major Flood Risk

Hurricane Nolo was just over 200 miles south of Hawaii's Big Island on Friday morning, September 25, 2026, moving north-northeast toward the islands.

The storm was expected to pass near or just south of the Big Island on Saturday as a major hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center. A major hurricane means sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Tropical storm conditions, with sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph, were expected to reach Hawaii by Friday evening. Nolo was forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane on Saturday, then turn west without making a direct landfall in the islands.

Staying offshore will not spare Hawaii. Forecasters warned of potentially life-threatening and catastrophic flooding across the state, with the heaviest rain on the Big Island. Forecasts published September 25 put storm totals at 15 to 30 inches (38 to 76 cm) through Saturday, with localized amounts of 25 to 35 inches, according to Al Jazeera and The Guardian. A separate forecast cited totals up to 35 inches across parts of the Big Island.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said the rainfall could produce catastrophic, life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. The National Weather Service forecast discussion said moisture on the north side of Nolo would meet the terrain of the Big Island and Maui and could lead to significant flash flooding, according to the National Weather Service. When moist air is forced up over mountains — orographic lift — and funneled through narrow valleys, that terrain can quickly turn tropical moisture into flash floods and debris flows.

A second hazard is surf and coastal flooding. Forecasters expect large and damaging waves along Hawaii's coast. A hurricane watch was in effect for Hawaii County. A National Weather Service hurricane watch statement warned of storm surge flooding, or ocean water pushed ashore by the storm, of greater than 1 foot above ground with localized inundation.

Preparations sped up before Friday evening. Hawaii Gov. Josh Green requested an emergency disaster declaration for four Hawaii counties to access federal funds and emergency support. More than 230 Hawaii National Guard members were activated. Schools closed.

The heaviest rain is forecast over an area hit by Hurricane Lala in August, where some people remain displaced. Saturated soils, damaged drainage and temporary shelter increase exposure even before the new rain.

September 25 also brought threats in two ocean areas. On that day, Hurricane Polo was lashing Mexico's coast while Hurricane Nolo strengthened near Hawaii.

The broader context here is that distance from the center matters less than moisture and mountains in the central Pacific. A major hurricane passing south of the Big Island can still push a long stream of deep tropical moisture into facing slopes, and Nolo's north-northeast movement followed by a westward turn extends that contact. For emergency managers, the problem is therefore not where the center lands, but how long rain lasts, how slopes and streams already stressed by Lala will hold, and the short window before tropical storm conditions arrive Friday evening.