Labour has fallen five percentage points to 32 percent in the latest 1News Verian poll, published 23 June 2026 — its biggest single-poll drop in recent months, according to RNZ. Despite the slide, Labour combined with the Greens and Te Pāti Māori still has enough support to form a government.

The key finding is that Labour's loss has not flowed to the National-led Government. Instead, the Greens have picked up support, which keeps the left bloc's total roughly steady. A Talbot Mills-Anacta poll from 15 June pointed the same way — with Green support rising enough to put the left bloc into majority territory — and the 1News Verian result backs that picture up.

This shift matters inside Parliament and for how the different parties will negotiate. A left-bloc government that reaches a majority partly because the Greens are strong is different to one where Labour is clearly in charge. The sequencing of confidence-and-supply arrangements (which smaller parties support which government), portfolio allocation, and policy influence all change depending on which partner is carrying the load.

The right bloc is harder to assess from these numbers alone. The most recent Roy Morgan poll available is from October 2025, which put National, ACT, and NZ First combined at 49.5 percent. However, that November 2025 finding is roughly eight months old. The latest 1News Verian poll is the most up-to-date snapshot heading into the second half of 2026.

Eight polling firms have been active during this Parliament, each using different methods, sample sizes, and survey dates. Verian uses online panel sampling, while Talbot Mills-Anacta has historically been commissioned by Labour-aligned organisations, though its recent results have broadly aligned with other firms' directions. Readers familiar with New Zealand polls will weigh these factors as they see fit. The two most recent polls — Talbot Mills-Anacta on 15 June and 1News Verian on 23 June — both reach the same conclusion: the left bloc, taken together, is ahead.

If Labour's 32 percent holds, it would be well below its 2023 election result and mark a historic low point for a party heading toward an election year. At that level, Labour would be governing mostly on the maths of coalition rather than on its own strength — which limits how much room a Prime Minister has to move on confidence votes, budget negotiations, and coalition deals. The Greens and Te Pāti Māori, reading the same numbers, will be working out how much leverage that gives them.

For the National-led Government, the poll is mixed news. Labour's decline does not automatically help them; if voters are shifting to the Greens rather than switching to the right, the numbers do not improve for National, ACT, and NZ First. The real variable to watch is whether NZ First stays above the five percent threshold — a hurdle that has decided New Zealand coalition outcomes before — and whether ACT can hold its vote as polling day nears.

With the 2026 election getting closer, these mid-year polls are the clearest signal of where parties should spend their energy and resources. The left bloc's majority projection, built on Green strength, and Labour's five-point fall are the two figures both campaign teams will be working from this week.