The governing coalition of National, ACT and NZ First would hold 62 seats to the opposition's 58 in the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll, the third consecutive survey in this series to produce that seat split, according to RNZ.

The poll, conducted by Curia Market Research for the NZ Taxpayers' Union between 1 and 5 July 2026, surveyed 1000 adult New Zealanders by phone and online. It put Labour on 31.5 percent (down 0.7 points), National on 30.5 percent (up 0.4), NZ First on 10.8 percent (down 0.6), the Greens on 10.4 percent (down 1.1), ACT on 6.9 percent (down 0.9) and Te Pāti Māori on 3.4 percent (up 0.3).

Under MMP, those party votes translate into seat allocations: Labour 41 seats, National 39, NZ First 14, Greens 13, ACT 9 and Te Pāti Māori 4. The numbers put a potential opposition bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori on 58 against the current coalition on 62. Labour leads National by a single point on party vote, yet the way the smaller parties distribute across the left and right blocs means the coalition retains a working majority.

The margin of error for a sample this size is plus or minus 3.1 percent at 95 percent confidence — meaning there is genuine uncertainty around these figures. The consistency of the 62-58 seat split across three consecutive Curia polls does suggest the coalition's majority has held steady over recent months, even as individual party shares have shifted.

On preferred prime minister, Chris Hipkins polled 19.2 percent and Christopher Luxon 19.1 percent — a gap of 0.1 points that falls well within the margin of error for a sub-sample question. Winston Peters followed on 11.8 percent, with David Seymour on 5.1 percent and Chlöe Swarbrick on 4.6 percent.

One factor worth flagging: National recorded a small uptick in support this round while both coalition partners, ACT and NZ First, lost ground. This pattern — the larger partner gaining while the smaller ones soften — has been consistent across this Curia series.

A sourcing gap limits what we can verify here. RNZ's report, the only dated public account of these specific figures, contains no link to a Taxpayers' Union press release with the full data tables — crosstabs, regional breakdowns, and undecided-voter handling are not visible in the writeup. The Taxpayers' Union maintains a polling archive, but as of writing neither the archive nor a tagged poll page surfaces a dated release specific to this July round. This means the RNZ report is currently the only citable primary source for these particular numbers.

For those watching government stability rather than headline party-vote swings, the seat projection carries more weight than monthly churn in individual party shares. Labour's lead on party vote has not translated into an opposition majority, because the Greens and Te Pāti Māori combined have not grown enough to offset the seats that NZ First and ACT still hold. Whether that pattern holds through the next public survey remains an open question.