AI and UK Jobs: Why Ministers Want a Worst-Case Plan

AI Minister Kanishka Narayan said the government must take seriously the possibility of an unprecedented impact on jobs from AI. He said there is no evidence so far of an overall fall in jobs because of AI. BBC

What the minister said

Ministers said the remarks came at a fringe meeting at the Labour Party conference on 28 September.

For context, the timing matters here. Fringe meetings, the side events away from the main stage, are where ministers often test new language.

Mr Narayan said one of his priorities was a contingency plan for worst-case job losses. He said the plan could cover labour market policy, the rules around hiring and support for jobseekers, and parts of regulation. He gave no detail of what is being considered.

He said the impact may have been under-estimated because of silent adoption, where staff use AI at work in ways that do not show up in company surveys. He said UK firms reported no overall impact on jobs, but one tech firm had told him it hired fewer people because tasks had been automated.

Mr Narayan had said in August that people are right to worry about technology and jobs. He had described AI progress as "an unprecedented pace of technological jump."

What the researchers said

Carsten Jung, of the IPPR think tank, spoke at the same meeting. He said about 8 million jobs could be negatively affected in a worst-case outcome. He said the think tank is working on a pandemic-preparedness style report on AI disruption to jobs.

Mr Jung said about 11% of UK jobs are highly exposed to AI chatbots, led by secretarial and administrative jobs. He said the share of tasks exposed could rise to about 60% across the UK economy with more advanced agentic AI, systems that can complete multi-step tasks with less human input. He said women are 40% more exposed than men, because a higher share work in service jobs.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband said in his conference speech that companies cannot be left to set AI safety guardrails alone to serve the public interest. Mr Narayan is the Minister for AI and Online Safety. Ministers said he will lead the Taskforce and attend Cabinet. GOV.UK

What this means for policy

Looking at what this means for policymakers, the move is from monitoring to preparation. Ministers said there is no overall fall in employment to respond to. They said they still want options ready if automation speeds up. Labour market policy and regulation are named as the levers. The scope is not set out.

The broader context here is measurement and who is affected. Quiet use makes surveys less reliable. Decisions in single firms can differ from national totals. On the IPPR figures, exposure is highest in secretarial and administrative roles and among women in service jobs. A pandemic-style model would mean ready analysis, triggers and agreed steps. Ministers have not said what those would be.