Labour's Ramsden Leads Te Tai Tonga Poll as Three Rivals Bunch Together
Labour's Mananui Ramsden is on 30 percent candidate support in Te Tai Tonga, with independent incumbent Tākuta Ferris fourth on 15 percent, according to the latest Whakaata Māori-Curia poll.
Te Pāti Māori candidate Lisa Marie Murch is second on 17 percent and Green Party candidate Lisa Te Morenga is third on 16 percent. The poll was reported on 29 September 2026 RNZ.
Whakaata Māori commissioned the survey for its Whakatau 2026 election coverage. Curia Market Research carried it out from 14 to 24 September. Curia also polls for the National Party and the New Zealand Taxpayers' Union.
The survey reached 500 Māori voters aged 18 and older in Te Tai Tonga. That was 420 interviews by phone and 80 through an online panel. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percent at 95 percent confidence, which means small gaps between candidates may not point to a firm lead.
On the party vote in the electorate, Labour is on 28 percent, followed by the Greens on 14 percent and Te Pāti Māori on 11 percent. Ten percent were undecided RNZ. Under MMP, voters get two votes: one for their local MP and one party vote that decides each party's overall share in Parliament.
Ferris defeated long-serving MP Rino Tirikatene in Te Tai Tonga in 2023. He is contesting this election as an independent following a dispute within Te Pāti Māori that led to his departure from the party.
His personal rating is stronger than his vote share. Twenty-nine percent said he had done a good job and 11 percent said he had done a poor job, for a net rating of plus 18 points.
Ramsden is former chair of Te Rūnanga o Koukourarata. In the survey, voters ranked honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi highest at 30 percent among priorities for improving Māori outcomes.
The broader context here is the shape of the contest rather than any single number. Ramsden is on 30 percent. Murch, Te Morenga and Ferris are clustered within two points of each other, well inside the poll's margin of error. For people who follow MMP electorate races, that points to a fluid second placing and a high premium on turnout and undecided voters.
Looking at what this means for Labour and its rivals, the party vote offers useful context. Labour retains the lead on both votes in a seat it lost in 2023. A Whakaata Māori release before that election had Labour on 31 percent as preferred party in Te Tai Tonga and Te Pāti Māori on 18 percent. The current figures put Labour on 28 percent and Te Pāti Māori on 11 percent, with the Greens on 14 percent. The read is straightforward. The electorate vote is competitive, and the party vote remains fragmented.
