Te Tai Tonga poll: Ramsden leads, three rivals bunched
Labour candidate Mananui Ramsden leads the electorate vote in Te Tai Tonga on 30%, with independent incumbent Tākuta Ferris on 15% in fourth place.
The Whakaata Māori-Curia poll, published on 29 September, puts Te Pāti Māori candidate Lisa Marie Murch second on 17% and Green candidate Lisa Te Morenga third on 16% RNZ. Ramsden's lead over the chasing pack is outside the margin of error. The gaps between second, third and fourth are not.
Whakaata Māori commissioned the poll for its Whakatau 2026 coverage. Curia Market Research surveyed 500 Māori voters aged 18 and over in Te Tai Tonga from 14 to 24 September, 420 by phone and 80 through an online panel. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5% at 95% confidence, the standard allowance for chance in polling. Curia also polls for the National Party and the New Zealand Taxpayers' Union.
Ferris defeated long-serving MP Rino Tirikatene in 2023 to take the seat for Te Pāti Māori. He is contesting the 2026 election as an independent after a dispute within Te Pāti Māori led to his departure from the party. In the same survey 29% said he had done a good job as MP and 11% said he had done a poor job, a net approval of +18 percentage points. His electorate support stands at 15%.
On the party vote in Te Tai Tonga — the second vote under MMP that decides each party's share of seats — Labour is on 28%, the Greens on 14% and Te Pāti Māori on 11%, with 10% undecided. New Zealand First and National are both on 6%, with the Opportunities Party and the Free Palestine party both on 4%. Asked about priorities for improving Māori outcomes, voters ranked honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi first at 30%, reducing poverty and homelessness second at 24%, and improving health and education outcomes third at 20%.
For background, a Whakaata Māori poll in September 2023 had Tirikatene, then the Labour incumbent, on 36% to Ferris on 25%, with 18% undecided. Labour was the preferred party on 31%. Tirikatene had held Te Tai Tonga since 2011. In the 2023 election Ferris won with 12,828 votes to Tirikatene's 10,004 votes, a margin of 2,824 votes NZ Herald.
Ramsden is running an electorate-only campaign. He declined a spot on Labour's party list NZ Herald. The four candidates were scheduled to debate live at 7pm on Tuesday on Te Ao Māori News Facebook, YouTube, Whakaata Māori and MĀORI+, moderated by Julian Wilcox and Maiki Sherman.
The broader context here is fragmentation rather than a straight transfer. Labour's electorate vote at 30% sits close to its party vote at 28%, while the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and the independent incumbent are bunched in the mid-teens where sample size and undecided voters still matter. Ferris holding +18 net approval while polling fourth suggests regard for his constituency work has not converted into vote intention. Under MMP a candidate can win the seat without carrying the party vote, and vice versa. Ramsden has foregone the list, so he must win Te Tai Tonga to enter Parliament.
