Natural Gas Split: November Firms as Prompt Months Ease
U.S. natural gas futures were split on 28 Sep 2026. The broad Henry Hub benchmark, the Louisiana hub used as the U.S. reference price, stood at 3.133, up 0.027 (+0.87%) on volume of 1,342. CME Group
The detail was less uniform. The November 2026 contract, NGX26, where tenor simply means delivery month, printed at 3.137, up 0.031 (+1.00%) on volume of 655, last updated at 07:04:19 PM CT on 28 Sep 2026. CME Group That contract moved higher. The nearer contracts did not.
September 2026 (NGU26) was listed at 2.758, down 0.036 (-1.29%). October 2026 (NGV26) was listed at 2.819, down 0.033 (-1.16%). CME Group Both finished lower on the session. With September and October listed below the NGX26 print, the near part of the curve, the line linking prices by delivery month, was upward sloping on the day.
The calendar view, which tracks price differences between months rather than a single month outright, showed 2.894, up 0.003 (+0.10%) on volume of 872. CME Group That print sits between the softer September-October listings and the firmer NGX26 quote. Volumes were split across the overview, single-contract and calendar views.
On weather, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center issues the official U.S. 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks. NOAA Climate Prediction Center Those outlooks show the probabilities of above-normal, normal, and below-normal conditions. They are probabilistic products. They do not give a single temperature or precipitation number.
The Center provides 8 to 14 day outlook maps for temperature and precipitation, and keeps archives of past 8-14 day outlooks with data and graphics. NOAA Climate Prediction Center The archive allows retrieval of prior maps and underlying data. For trading desks and risk managers, that creates a verifiable trail for how forecasts change.
Its Probabilistic Hazards Outlook states a slight risk of much below normal temperatures across parts of the Northeast, southern Great Lakes region, and Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys. NOAA Climate Prediction Center The wording is specific. Slight risk. Much below normal. Named regions only.
Looking at what this means for curve positioning, the session favored later delivery over prompt delivery. Softer NGU26 and NGV26 against firmer NGX26 widens the carry, the price gap between months. Calendar interest at 2.894, on modest volume, points to continued use of spreads rather than outright direction in the very near term. For storage economics and transportation scheduling, that shape rewards patience.
In my view, the weather note deserves weight without being overstated. A slight risk of much below normal temperatures in the Northeast, Great Lakes and Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys can shift the range of demand outcomes. It does not lock in demand. The 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day framework is built around three-category probabilities, and the maps must be read as odds.
The broader context here is process. With futures spread across delivery months and volumes split between 1,342 on the overview, 655 in NGX26 and 872 on the calendar view, execution matters. Small changes of 0.027 and 0.031 look minor alone. Against a 2.758 to 3.137 range across the listed contracts, they show where trading actually cleared. Paired with the archived outlooks, the task is to track whether the temperature risk persists, expands, or fades in successive runs.
