Coalition Sinks to 22% Equal Low as Labor Rebounds to 29%
The Coalition's primary vote — the share of voters who put it first on the ballot — fell to 22% in September, down from 26% in August to match its lowest level in the Guardian Essential poll. Labor's primary vote rose to 29%, up from 26% a month earlier, according to the poll published on 29 September 2026. The Guardian
The survey covered 1,022 people in the week before publication. Angus Taylor was leading the Coalition at the time of polling.
On immigration, 55% said the yearly migrant intake should be lowered. Another 29% said it should stay the same, and 16% said it should be raised. Asked about migration in general, 46% called it positive for Australia and 39% called it negative.
Support for tighter settings crossed several measures. Forced deportation for people who overstay visas drew 70% support. Greater scrutiny of protection or asylum visas, the claims made by people seeking safety, drew 68%. Making it harder for temporary migrants to switch visa types to extend a stay drew 64%. Preventing most international students from bringing family members drew 62%. Directing skilled worker visas toward shortage industries like health or construction drew 74%.
That preference for fewer arrivals held even if capacity was not an issue. Seventy percent said they would still want immigration reduced even if the government built enough homes and expanded public services to keep pace with population growth. Among those who wanted a decrease, refugees and family members of people living in Australia were the categories most often chosen for cuts.
The broader context here is a primary vote that shifts sharply month to month rather than a stable two-party contest. In the poll reported on 29 July 2026, Labor's primary was 31%, up one point, while the Coalition was on 22%, down one point. The Guardian Then in the poll reported on 2 September 2026, Labor's national primary fell five points in a month to 26%, and Anthony Albanese recorded his lowest approval rating as prime minister. The Guardian That early September report described the Coalition regaining ground as Labor and One Nation lost support amid a messy immigration debate.
Looking at what this means for party strategy, the longer series points to splits on the right and soft support in the centre. In the poll reported on 27 May 2026, Labor held 29% of the primary vote and One Nation held 28%. The Guardian In the 28 April 2026 poll, the Coalition attracted 24%, the Greens were on 11%, and independents and undecided voters were each on 5%. Earlier, in the Essential poll reported on 7 October 2025, the Coalition vote had fallen from 31.8% at the election to 27%, including 7% among voters aged 18 to 34.
In my view, the puzzle is not a simple left-against-right fight. A public almost evenly split on whether migration is positive still backs lower intakes and tighter enforcement by wide margins. That suggests views are shaped less by abstract ideas about multiculturalism than by judgments about control, rule-following and how places are allocated, a bit like voters wanting a queue that is both orderly and tied to need. Voters favour skilled intakes linked to shortages, penalties for overstaying and closer vetting of protection claims, and they hold that stance even when more housing and services are promised. For Labor, the September rebound to 29% repairs the August dip but leaves the government well short of a strong primary. For the Coalition under Taylor, 22% repeats the July low and erases the brief recovery noted in early September. The question now is whether immigration can help either side build a wider base, or keeps moving primary votes toward protest options while both major parties trade a narrow lead month to month.
