Opposition Leader Angus Taylor's net approval rating fell from minus-1 in June to minus-12 in the July 2026 Guardian Essential poll, with the steepest losses concentrated among male and middle-aged voters. The poll of 1,060 voters, published on July 29, 2026, also placed One Nation's primary vote at 25% (down one point from June) and the Coalition's at 22% (down one point), while Labor's indicative primary vote rose one point to 31% (The Guardian).

A quick note on how to read these numbers: a "primary vote" is the share of voters who rank a given party first on their ballot, before any preference deals. A "net approval rating" is the percentage who approve of a leader's performance minus the percentage who disapprove. So a net rating of minus-12 means more people disapprove than approve, by 12 points.

All primary vote shifts in the poll fell within the survey's margin of error, which means the headline movements are not statistically definitive on their own. The trend line, however, is consistent. One Nation's primary peaked at 28% in May and has since drifted downward, while the Coalition has failed to consolidate the opposition vote base. Taylor's approval dropped three points in July, and disapproval rose seven points, building on June figures of 36% approval and 37% disapproval.

The collapse in Taylor's net approval was unevenly distributed. Among men, his net rating fell 16 points between June and July. Among women, the decline was 4 points. The sharpest demographic loss was among voters aged 35–54, where net approval dropped 20 points. Voters aged 18–34 recorded a 13-point decline. No demographic group in the poll showed improvement for the Opposition Leader.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's numbers were also negative. His net approval stood at minus-14, with 38% approving and 52% disapproving. July marked the fourth consecutive month in which more than half of voters disapproved of his performance. Both major-party leaders are therefore operating in negative net-approval territory at the same time, a configuration that leaves neither with a clear electoral mandate in the polling.

The dominant issue driving voter sentiment is cost of living. Nearly 80% of respondents identified inflation and cost of living as one of the most important issues facing the country. On that metric, the Labor government received its harshest assessment: 64% rated its handling of inflation and cost of living as poor, while only 16% rated it as good. Medicare and health was cited by 50% of respondents as a top issue, followed by crime at 42% and immigration at 35%.

Labor's performance ratings varied substantially across policy domains. On Medicare and health, 39% rated the government's performance as good and 30% as poor, the only major issue area where positive ratings exceeded negative ones. On crime, the picture inverted: 22% rated Labor's performance as good and 50% as poor. The government's weakest score was on the issue voters care about most.

The poll also tested attitudes toward AI infrastructure. Less than a third of Australians said they would be happy to have an AI datacentre in their local area, a finding that sits alongside cost of living as a measure of public unease with large economic and technological shifts.

The broader context here is that these results describe a political landscape in which the major parties are bleeding support to One Nation from a position of weakness rather than strength. One Nation at 25% primary remains down from its May peak of 28%, but the plateau has not benefited the Coalition, which lost a point rather than gaining one. The Coalition's 22% primary is a strikingly low figure for a major party in a two-party system. It suggests that One Nation's support is not functioning as a temporary protest vote that returns to the Coalition when sentiment cools. Instead, the right-of-centre vote is splitting in a way that appears more durable than tactical.

For Labor, the calculus is different. The government's primary vote ticked up to 31%, and its one area of comparative strength — health — is the second-most salient issue for voters. But the dominant issue is cost of living, where the government's approval rating is catastrophic by any standard. A 16% good rating on the issue that 80% of voters rank as most important is a vulnerability that no amount of health-policy goodwill can offset. The fourth consecutive month of majority disapproval for Albanese suggests that economic discontent is hardening into a sustained personal verdict on the Prime Minister.

Taylor's position may be the more precarious of the two. An opposition leader whose net approval is declining at a faster rate than the incumbent's, and whose party is losing primary vote while a third party holds steady above 25%, faces a structural problem. The Coalition cannot win from a 22% primary base. The question for Taylor is not whether One Nation's support will revert to the Coalition, because the polling trajectory since May offers no evidence of that. The question is whether the Coalition can construct a policy offering that pulls voters back from One Nation without alienating the moderate cross-section that abandoned the party previously.

Neither leader has a polling path to comfort. The numbers describe an electorate that is dissatisfied across the board and increasingly willing to park its vote outside the two-party system.