Crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest volume since the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began, Reuters reported on June 25, 2026, and oil briefly fell below $73 per barrel — the last major price before the war started.

Brent crude futures closed at $73.74 per barrel on June 24, down 4.3%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell to $70.34, down 3.9%, according to Reuters. This continued a slide that began on June 14, when President Trump announced a deal with Iran to reopen the strait. Oil had already dropped roughly 5% that day, per CNBC.

To understand why these price swings matter, the backdrop is necessary. On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched close to 900 strikes in 12 hours against Iranian military targets — missile stockpiles, air defenses, and bases. Iran responded by declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed. The strait is a thin waterway between Iran and Oman; roughly one-third of all seaborne oil passes through it. When Iran shut it down, global fuel supplies faced a sudden shock. Three U.S. soldiers were killed and five seriously wounded in Iranian strikes on a military base in Kuwait, Al Jazeera reported that day.

Throughput Recovering, But Still Below Normal

U.S. Central Command reported 55 merchant vessels transited Hormuz last Saturday carrying more than 17 million barrels of oil, Reuters reported on June 22. That represents a meaningful increase from the near-standstill of the spring, but it falls short of the 130–140 daily vessel crossings that moved through before the war, as CNBC noted earlier this month. A sign of returning confidence came June 19, when three Saudi-flagged supertankers carrying roughly 6 million barrels exited the strait.

The strain on shipping is visible in tanker hire rates — the price owners pay to rent a ship for a journey. Tanker rates outside Hormuz reached $190,500 per day as of June 23, jumping from $106,500 just a week earlier, according to ship brokers cited by Reuters. That near-doubling reflects both pent-up oil waiting to be shipped and the extra charge carriers are demanding while the situation remains uncertain.

The Safety Premium Hasn't Disappeared

The price recovery and shipping numbers suggest things are normalizing. The underlying picture is more complicated.

On June 25, a cargo vessel was struck by an unknown projectile near Oman, Reuters reported, reviving fears about supply disruption. No group claimed responsibility. That single incident reminded the market that the strait, though nominally open, remains vulnerable to attack or miscalculation.

War-risk insurance also remains a drag on costs. Al Jazeera reported in late April that even with the strait fully reopened, insurance premiums could rise by roughly 0.25% of a vessel's value. That may sound small, but across thousands of shipments it adds up — the cost flows through to fuel prices and shipping fees that consumers ultimately pay. With the Oman incident unresolved and Iran's intentions still unclear, insurance underwriters are unlikely to lower premiums much in the near term.

The deal President Trump announced looked, at first glance, like a return to normal. The June 25 projectile strike and the gap between today's traffic and prewar levels tell a different story. The strait is open for business, but it has not fully recovered as the reliable, low-cost shipping corridor it was before February. The market is pricing in a probability: Trump's agreement cuts the risk of a total blockade, but the shipping industry still treats Hormuz as a worry, not routine. Until daily crossings climb back toward 130 vessels and war-risk premiums fall sharply, the corridor will carry an extra cost baked into every barrel of oil shipped through. Who pays that cost — producers, shippers, or fuel consumers — remains an active negotiation.