Greens edge ahead of Labour with Māori-roll voters, Mata-Horizon finds
Māori voters on the Māori roll now put the Green Party ahead of Labour for the party vote, according to a Mata-Horizon poll released on 1 October.
The results were revealed in a special episode of Mata Reports, and reported by RNZ. The poll tested party vote intention for the 7 November election among Māori voters on both the Māori and general rolls. The party vote is the vote that largely decides how many seats each party gets in Parliament.
Among Māori-roll voters, 28% said they would give their party vote to the Greens. Labour was on 27%, Te Pāti Māori on 16% and the Opportunity Party on 6%. National, NZ First, ACT and the Te Tai Tokerau Party were each below 5%. On that roll, 9% were undecided and 3% said they would not vote.
The pattern was different on the general roll. Among Māori voters enrolled there, Labour led on 38% and the Greens were second on 17%. National was on 11%, NZ First on 10%, the Opportunity Party on 6%, ACT on 4% and Te Pāti Māori on 2%. On the general roll, 8% were undecided and 3% said they would not vote.
The movement since the last election is concentrated with the Greens. The poll put their support up 17% among Māori-roll voters and up 7% among general-roll Māori voters. Labour was up 1% on the Māori roll and up 2% on the general roll. On the programme, former MP Tau Henare called the result "huge". Veteran journalist Tina Wickliffe called it "massive".
The Mata-Horizon numbers sit alongside national polling that has also lifted the Greens. The recent 1News Verian poll put the Greens on 16%, described as its highest level ever recorded. In that poll, National and Labour were both on 28%, according to 1News. NZ First was on 9% and the Opportunity Party was on 6%, according to Stuff. Te Pāti Māori was on 1.2%, up 0.1 points, according to coverage by The Conversation.
That Verian poll also pointed to seat numbers in Parliament. It suggested Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and the Opportunity Party could govern together with 65 seats. Separate RNZ coverage on 29 September noted the Greens had gained 4 percentage points, netting them a record 19 seats, and that co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick had gained 2 points.
The broader context here is the split between the rolls matters for the campaign. The Greens lead only on the Māori roll, and only by one point over Labour, with Te Pāti Māori well back in third. On the general roll, where most Māori voters are enrolled, Labour retains a clear plurality and the Greens are grouped with National and NZ First behind Labour. The undecided share on both rolls leaves room for movement before 7 November. For strategists, the question is whether party vote intention among Māori-roll voters converts in the Māori electorates, where local contests and sitting MPs carry separate weight from the party vote, and how Labour and Te Pāti Māori adjust their appeals when a third party is polling first or second with Māori voters.
