Badenoch Tells Conservatives to Prepare for Possible Early Election

Kemi Badenoch has told Conservative staff to prepare for a possible early general election, as the party gathers in Birmingham for a conference built around the economy and welfare. BBC

The instruction was confirmed on 2 October. Badenoch said the Conservatives are getting ready for an early poll. She said Prime Minister Andy Burnham is planning to call one, and said he could do so by next May, according to the most recent account. The Independent Burnham has dismissed the idea.

Badenoch will arrive in Birmingham this weekend. She will address conference twice, on Sunday and on Wednesday. The party's slogan will be "Stronger economy, stronger country". Officials said the week will focus on the economy and welfare.

On pensions, Burnham set out plans in his conference speech on Tuesday to end the existing triple lock from 2030. The proposal would remove the automatic annual link with average earnings, so the state pension would rise by at least inflation or 2.5%. BBC

The triple lock currently guarantees the state pension rises each year in line with inflation, wage increases, or 2.5%, whichever is highest. In other words, it picks the highest of the three figures. Badenoch will state that the Conservatives continue to support the triple lock in its current form. She said changes to the triple lock would not lead to enough savings to fund the new care system.

On welfare, Badenoch has made announcements in the past two weeks about cutting benefits for the long-term unemployed. The party said it will cut welfare spending by £23 billion to get Britain working again. During Labour conference, the Conservatives derided the event as the "Welfare Party Conference".

Burnham said the way to reduce the benefits bill in the long term is more up-front investment in support for those out of work. Sir Keir Starmer sought to cut welfare spending before backing down in the face of a rebellion by his own MPs.

On polling, only 20% of Britons said the Conservatives are ready for a return to government. Some 59% said the Conservatives are not ready for a return to government. YouGov

Badenoch has announced that the next Conservative government will abolish stamp duty, the tax paid when buying a home, entirely on primary residences. The party's published plan includes tax cuts, growth measures and Kemi's Golden Economic Rule. It said cutting state spending would allow responsible tax cuts for the British people, and leaving the ECHR, the European court that rules on human rights cases, would help gain control of Britain's borders. Badenoch also supports calls for referendums on housing asylum seekers in Suffolk.

The broader context here will be familiar to anyone who follows conference season. Election talk gives a party focus. It shapes interviews, sharpens lines to take, and gives activists in the hall a reason to organise. It also asks the other side to respond. Burnham has dismissed the suggestion.

Looking at what this means for the months ahead, both parties have put welfare and pensions at the centre. Burnham is asking for patience, with spending now and pension restraint from 2030. Badenoch offers continuity on pensions and restraint on welfare now. For those watching Birmingham, the practical questions are whether the Opposition can hold that economic message for four days, and whether ministers can defend a 2030 pensions change while denying an early poll.