Badenoch Tells Tory Conference the Party Can Win Outright
Kemi Badenoch told the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham that the party will win the next general election outright and form the next government.
The annual gathering ran from Sunday 4 October to Wednesday 7 October 2026 in Birmingham. Ms Badenoch, the Conservative leader, spoke at a rally on Sunday. She described the conference as "buzzing". She said the party would win by keeping to principles set out in a document published on 4 October as 'The Right Way'. The BBC described it as a major statement of Conservative principles. BBC
Deputy leader Alex Burghart said the party is preparing for an election now and can win outright. Ms Badenoch told her team before conference to prepare for a possible early election. The party said the planned focus was the economy and welfare.
More In Common polling put Ms Badenoch in net positive approval, meaning more approved than disapproved. She was one of two leaders in that position, alongside Prime Minister Andy Burnham. The firm's Luke Tryl said focus groups see Ms Badenoch as a "breath of fresh air" who is not afraid to "say it as it is". Mr Tryl said that personal support has not yet passed to the Conservative Party. Voters in the groups called the party "outdated" and "divided". Chairman Kevin Hollinrake said: "Of course, Kemi's ahead of us", because people trust her and do not trust the party.
YouGov data published on 2 October put Ms Badenoch's net favourability at -15, up 20 points. Her net score for perceived job performance was up 39 points ahead of conference. In August, 38% of Britons said she was doing well as leader, up 23 points since last October. In September her favourability was 32%, just below her 35% peak at the start of August. YouGov voting intention for 4-5 October, published on 6 October, put Labour on 27%, Reform UK on 22%, the Conservatives on 20%, the Liberal Democrats on 11% and the Greens on 11%. People in Birmingham spoke of trailing Reform UK by four or five points in the polls. YouGov
Reform UK was a frequent topic on the fringe, the meetings around the main hall. Ms Badenoch has ruled out governing with Reform UK in a hung parliament, where no party has a majority, and said she would rather hold another election. Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice said his party plans to win Ms Badenoch's seat at the next election. Conservatives in Birmingham said the party has, for now, avoided being destroyed or taken over by Reform UK.
On policy, the Conservatives pledged £10bn for a "British Iron Dome" air defence system if they win. On 6 October the party announced 'Britannia Shield' to protect Britain from missile and drone attacks, and published 'Defending Britain in a More Dangerous World' setting out the defence plan. On the economy, the party published 'Our Plan To Get Britain's Economy Growing' on 5 October. On the same day it announced a plan to save £900 million a year by cutting student loans for non-UK nationals. It also held a rally for farmers and called on Mr Burnham to fully scrap the Family Farms and Business Tax. On 6 October it launched a 'Protecting Parents' pledge to keep political activism out of the classroom. Education is devolved, so a classroom pledge for England would need separate decisions in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
The broader context here is a split between a leader ahead and a party behind. That pattern is unusual for an opposition and it shapes the plan seen in Birmingham: clear principles, early election readiness, and no talk of deals with Reform UK. Like a runner with a fast start but a heavy pack to carry, personal directness travels while a party seen as outdated and divided does not. The test is arithmetic. A hung parliament would press the no-deal pledge, while an outright win would need personal approval to become party votes, with Reform UK ahead and aiming at Conservative seats.
