Ethiopia's Abiy Begins New Term With Red Sea Pledge as Tigray War Resumes
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was sworn in for another five-year term on October 5, 2026, and used the day to renew his call for Ethiopian access to the Red Sea.
What Abiy said
Speaking to Parliament on the opening day of its session, Abiy said Ethiopia would seek a port outlet to the sea. He called access critical to Ethiopia's "civilisation" Al Jazeera. He framed the effort as negotiated, not unilateral. "Based on the principle of give and take, we will work diligently to ensure that Ethiopia has an outlet to the sea."
Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea became independent in 1993, leaving it without its own coastline. Abiy made a similar argument to Ethiopian state media in October 2023, saying Ethiopia should assert its right to Red Sea access Reuters.
What neighbours said
A day before the speech, the leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia met in New Alamein, Egypt, on October 4, 2026. They said oversight of the Red Sea coastline should be reserved for bordering states Al Jazeera. Ethiopia has no coastline, so that formula would leave it out.
Ethiopia's Foreign Ministry replied on October 5, saying any discussion of the Red Sea must account for Ethiopia's "legitimate interests and enduring connection" to the waterway.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said Somalia did not object to Ethiopia gaining access through Somali territory, but said the two countries would need to negotiate officially.
The fighting in the north
The sea dispute is unfolding alongside renewed war in the north. Clashes between Ethiopia's federal military and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, the TPLF, the political and armed group dominant in Tigray, began in August 2026. That broke a three-year-old peace deal that had ended a two-year war.
Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan of supporting opposition forces in Tigray. The government faces a coalition, a joint front, of seven armed movements called the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, including the TPLF, which seeks to remove Abiy's government.
Ethiopian federal and allied forces entered Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, on October 4, 2026. Diplomats and analysts say Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki is giving rebels in Tigray access to the coast and the rest of the world Reuters.
What could happen next
The broader context here is a clash between two ideas of order. Addis Ababa treats sea access as a matter of history, population size and trade needs, to be settled by bargaining. Cairo, Asmara, Khartoum and Mogadishu, in the New Alamein statement, treat it as a matter of control by coastal states, meaning states with a coastline.
Looking ahead to what practitioners should watch, three questions stand out. First, whether the capture of Mekelle changes the military balance or leads outside supporters to back the insurgency more firmly. Second, whether the Somalia opening turns into formal talks over sovereignty, leases and security guarantees, which would test Abiy's give-and-take formula. Third, whether the New Alamein group becomes a lasting bloc or remains a one-day message. A durable group would limit Ethiopia's options. A loose alignment would leave space for one-on-one deals.
In my view, Abiy has tied his new mandate to both tracks. He enters a five-year term promising economic continuity through the sea and political continuity through the war. Pursuing both at once raises the cost of a misstep for every capital involved.
