Middle East Oil Flows Topped Pre-War Levels, Yet Brent Held Above $100
Middle East crude exports excluding Iran ran above pre-war levels on four days in the final week of September 2026, with Strait of Hormuz flows largely restored by early October. That supply is what gets refined into petrol and diesel, so it reaches household budgets with a delay.
Ship-tracking data from Kpler put exports excluding Iran above pre-war levels in late September, in figures detailed on Oct. 4 and Oct. 5. Kpler via The Daily Star The four-day run above those levels was reported by Iran International.
By early October, crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel that carries much Gulf oil, had largely returned to levels seen before the Iran war began. The Guardian reported that return on Oct. 2, citing Hormuz transit and Gulf loadings including diesel.
Oil prices fell in early trading on Oct. 1 as recovering Middle East exports and a Group of Seven release from oil stocks eased supply concerns. The Wall Street Journal Futures stayed elevated and headline risk stayed high.
That fall came after a September climb. On Sept. 9, front-month Brent futures, the contract for the nearest delivery month for the global oil benchmark, settled up $3.29, or 3.4%, at $101.21 a barrel after touching $101.58 in the session. Reuters The settlement put Brent back above $100 after weeks of disruption.
Commonwealth Bank reported that Middle East energy exports slumped after the MoU collapse. Commonwealth Bank Its 2026 Full-Year Results Presentation separately described oil prices as elevated because of the Middle East conflict. Commonwealth Bank
For comparison, on Aug. 12 front-month crude-oil futures settled up 0.2% to $92.60 a barrel. The Wall Street Journal The same report noted Saudi Arabia had reopened the East-West pipeline, an alternative route to Hormuz for part of Gulf output.
Undated screens showed Brent (ICE) at 100.32 USD a barrel, up 1.93 or 1.89%, and WTI (Nymex) at 89.19 USD a barrel, up 0.24 or 0.27%. Bloomberg Those are screens without a settlement date, not dated settlements.
The broader context here is a market switching between two modes. One prices scarce barrels, Hormuz transit risk, and emergency and commercial stock buffers. The other prices restored loadings and pipeline backup. Late September data point to the second mode at the margin. Four days above pre-war levels do not erase the MoU-collapse shortfall or the early-September run to $101.21, but they change the stock math for refiners buying cargoes for the fourth quarter.
In my view, what to watch is whether the recovery lasts and what it includes. The Kpler exceedances exclude Iran. Hormuz is described as largely, not fully, restored. G7 releases can cover timing gaps, but they do not replace steady production and loading rates. If loadings stay above pre-war baselines into October, time spreads, the price gap between near and later delivery, and volatility should cool from September highs. If loadings fade, the $101.58 intraday high from Sept. 9 is the market's recent reminder of how fast prices can jump.
