Anne Carson and Can Xue lead bookmakers' odds for Nobel Prize in Literature
Canadian poet Anne Carson and Chinese writer Can Xue are the joint favourites to win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature.
Both writers are priced at 10/1 in odds from bookmaker Ladbrokes, meaning a bettor would win £10 for every £1 staked if either name is called, as reported by The Guardian on 7 October 2026. The winner is due to be named on Thursday at 12pm UK time, which is 1pm in central Europe, when the Swedish Academy announces its choice in Stockholm.
The prize this year is worth 12 million Swedish krona, about £900,000. It goes each year to a writer judged to have produced outstanding work, under the terms set out in Alfred Nobel's will.
Carson, 76, is a Canadian poet known for work that moves between poetry and prose. Can Xue, 73, whose real name is Deng Xiaohua, is an avant-garde writer, a label used for fiction that breaks with conventional storytelling. Neither has won the Nobel before.
Behind the two leaders, Japanese novelist Haruki Murakami is next at 14/1. Australian writer Gerald Murnane and American novelist Thomas Pynchon follow at 16/1 each.
A group at 20/1 includes Margaret Atwood, Cristina Rivera Garza, Enrique Vila-Matas, Jamaica Kincaid, Lídia Jorge, Lyudmila Ulitskaya and Michel Houellebecq. Ladbrokes lists other candidates on request, so the field is wider than the named odds suggest.
What makes this stand out is how often these names have circled the prize without winning it. Can Xue was also the bookmaker's favourite in 2024 at 10/1 and had led the market in 2023. Carson was priced at 4/1 in October 2022, when Salman Rushdie was also among the favourites.
Last year's prize went to Hungarian writer László Krasznahorkai. The Swedish Academy, the Stockholm-based body that awards the literature prize, keeps its deliberations secret until the announcement, which is streamed live on the Nobel website.
