National takes aim at ACT and NZ First for centre votes
National is campaigning against its coalition partners, ACT and New Zealand First, to win voters in the centre.
That is the assessment in RNZ's Caucus analysis published on 8 October, with deputy political editor Craig McCulloch and political editor Jo Moir analysing National's election strategy RNZ. The episode is titled 'National takes aim at coalition partners in scramble for soft centre voters'.
Recent polls have consistently placed National below 30 percent. The RNZ-Reid Research poll put National at 25.9 percent. National Party figures told RNZ they say internal polls have National at about 30 percent.
Undecided voters remain a factor. The RNZ-Reid Research poll showed about 6 percent undecided. The TVNZ-Verian poll showed about 11 percent undecided.
ACT polled at 9 percent in both the TVNZ and RNZ polls cited by RNZ. That compares with 12 percent eight weeks out from the last election. ACT received 0.5 percent in the 2017 election. Its best-ever result was 8.6 percent in 2023.
The minor-party surge
New Zealand First has moved sharply in October polling. An October poll reported by the Otago Daily Times put New Zealand First at 12 percent, up 3.6 points Otago Daily Times. The 1News poll reported on 6 October put New Zealand First at 10 percent, up 1 point.
ACT was at 9.2 percent in the Otago Daily Times-reported poll, down 1.3 points. The 1News poll reported on 6 October put ACT at 9 percent, down 2 points.
The Opportunity Party sits just below the threshold. Under MMP, New Zealand's proportional voting system, a party generally needs 5 percent of the party vote to enter Parliament without an electorate seat. The Otago Daily Times-reported poll put the party at 4.8 percent, up 0.3 points. The New Zealand Herald reported a new October poll had National below 26 percent, with the Greens surging and the Opportunity Party in kingmaker position, meaning it could decide who is able to form a government.
Te Pāti Māori remains low in the published party vote. The 1News poll reported on 6 October put Te Pāti Māori at 1 percent, steady on its previous result. An October poll reported by Scoop put Te Pāti Māori at 1.4 percent, down 0.6 points.
Voters are split on what National should do about the Opportunity Party. In 1News poll reporting on 6 October, around 40 percent said Christopher Luxon should reconsider working with the Opportunity Party, while 33 percent said National should hold firm and not work with Opportunity 1News. Stuff's Flip Forecaster analysis found very few scenarios for National to remain in power unless it partners with the Opportunity Party.
Business support has softened. The Herald reported in October that support for coalition parties among SMEs, small and medium-sized businesses, had fallen below 50 percent.
The leaders' debate has not settled the contest. 1News Vote Compass reporting on 7 October found 86 percent of Labour voters said Chris Hipkins won the leaders' debate, compared with 66 percent of National supporters who picked Christopher Luxon.
The medicines pitch
National has promised a further $604 million for new medicines to increase Pharmac's buying power. Pharmac is the state agency that buys medicines for New Zealand. National tied the increase to a cut in foreign aid, saying it was bringing money back from overseas to fund medicines and cancer screening.
The portfolio sits with its coalition partner. ACT leader David Seymour is associate health minister responsible for Pharmac.
National received 25.6 percent in the 2020 election. That figure now frames much of the internal discussion about base and centre. The party is seeking to win back voters lost to ACT and New Zealand First while also holding the centre.
RNZ's Caucus podcast has teamed up with Focus on Politics in 2026 to cover the election campaign. RNZ operates a dedicated Caucus podcast hub. It lists a Caucus episode titled "How's this election different? Disgruntlement, Opportunity..." RNZ lists a Caucus episode titled "National's panic and pivot as it tries to win back its fractured base".
The broader context here is an MMP contest where small shifts decide the government. National is polling close to its 2020 low. ACT is holding below its 2023 high. New Zealand First is rising. The Opportunity Party is polling within range of parliamentary representation.
In my view, that arithmetic explains the targeting. National cannot form a government on 25.9 percent or on internal numbers around 30 percent without either reclaiming party vote from its current partners or finding a new partner. Attacking ACT and New Zealand First risks coalition friction. Ignoring them risks further leakage. Courting the Opportunity Party creates another set of trade-offs with existing supporters, as the 40 percent to 33 percent split suggests.
Looking at what this means for the campaign, the undecided figures matter. Six percent in one poll and 11 percent in another leave room for late movement. The debate verdicts, split sharply along partisan lines, point to consolidation rather than conversion so far. For people working in Parliament, the test will be discipline. How National prosecutes a centre pitch while in government with the parties it is now targeting, and how ACT and New Zealand First respond, will shape the final weeks.
