NZ First Hits 12 Percent as Coalition Extends Lead in October Poll
New Zealand First is on 12 percent in the October Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll, up 3.6 points since September. It is the party's highest-ever result in that series, and the three coalition parties have extended their lead.
Party vote
National was on 28.5 percent, down 0.5 points, according to the poll reported on 8 October 2026. Labour was on 28.2 percent, up 2.3 points. The gap between the two largest parties was 0.3 points. RNZ
The Greens were on 13.3 percent, down 0.6 points. ACT was on 9.2 percent, down 1.3 points. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was on 4.8 percent, up 0.3 points. Te Pāti Māori was on 1.4 percent, down 0.6 points, in the same poll.
On those numbers, National, New Zealand First and ACT would hold 65 seats between them, enough for a path to power. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would hold 55 seats between them. A party usually needs 5 percent or an electorate seat to enter Parliament, and the pollster put TOP's chance of being above 5 percent, once margin of error is taken into account, at 42 percent.
Preferred prime minister
Christopher Luxon led as preferred prime minister on 21.2 percent, unchanged from September. Chris Hipkins was on 21 percent, up 4.1 points. Winston Peters was on 13.9 percent, up 3.2 points. David Seymour was on 6 percent, down 1.8 points. Chlöe Swarbrick was on 4.9 percent, down 2.1 points.
How the poll was done
Curia Market Research polled 1,000 adult New Zealanders by phone and online between 1 October and 5 October. The maximum margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percent, which is the range polling can miss by through chance. The undecided share on the party vote question was 2.5 percent. Curia also carries out National's internal party polling. The Taxpayers' Union-Curia series has run since January 2021, and the Union lists the latest item in the series as dated 7 October. RNZ
What past polls showed
Curia published the September Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll on 10 September. In that September report, Labour polled 25.9 percent with the coalition retaining power. In early August polling, conducted between 1 and 4 August, Labour was at 27.8 percent, down 3.7 points. In July, Hipkins inched ahead of Luxon as preferred prime minister. In May, a seat projection from the series put Labour on 41 seats, National on 39, New Zealand First on 15, the Greens on 12, ACT on eight and Te Pāti Māori on five. Curia
The broader context here is about where the lift comes from. National is essentially flat and ACT is down. The coalition's stronger position in this poll comes almost entirely from New Zealand First. For those who follow the Beehive, that affects bargaining power. A 12 percent partner polling well clear of the threshold negotiates differently from a 6 percent partner near it.
Looking at what this means for the other side, Labour has recovered ground since September but remains tied with National on the party vote and tied, in effect, with Luxon on the preferred prime minister measure. Hipkins closed a gap, up 4.1 points to 21 percent against Luxon's 21.2 percent. Peters, on 13.9 percent, is now the clear third name in that contest and the only other leader in double figures. With TOP on 4.8 percent and a 42 percent chance of clearing 5 percent, the threshold remains the other variable to watch. On these numbers TOP gets no seats. On a small polling error it gets a bloc.
