Eritrean Troops Enter Tigray as Ethiopian Drones Hit Back

Eritrean military vehicles carrying soldiers crossed Eritrea's southern border into Ethiopia's Tigray region on 7 October and reached Adigrat, where Ethiopian government drones struck them Wednesday evening and Thursday morning.

The crossing was reported by civilian witnesses, a militia commander and the monitoring group Acled, according to The Guardian. Adigrat lies 25 miles south of the Eritrean border. A separate account said Eritrean troops crossed at Zelambesa on 7 October and came under drone attack at Guada while traveling toward Idaga Hamus, according to The Washington Post.

Acled reported the Ethiopian drone attacks. The group said Eritrean troops and ammunition in the Adigrat area were hit by multiple drone strikes overnight, according to Yahoo News. The strikes continued into Thursday morning, 8 October.

Asmara has not confirmed the movement. Eritrea's information minister Yemane Gebremeskel did not explicitly confirm or deny the presence of Eritrean troops in Ethiopia.

The incursion follows rapid change inside Tigray. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), Tigray's main armed political group, launched an offensive against the Ethiopian government on 23 September. The Tigray Peace Force took over the regional capital Mekelle on 4 October after the TPLF withdrew from the city.

Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), Ethiopia's federal army, and the Tigray Peace Force then took control of Wukro town in Eastern Tigray zone and Hagere Selam town in South-eastern Tigray zone on 7 October. Airstrikes killed at least 17 people overnight in northern Ethiopia, aid sources said earlier this week, according to Reuters. On 6 October, Tigray rebel groups were reported to be forcibly recruiting boys as young as 15 as the conflict erupted again.

The fighting sits on a longer Eritrean footprint in Tigray. Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993. The two states fought a war from 1998 to 2000. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said Eritrea would withdraw its troops from Tigray in March 2021. Tigray rebels had accepted a ceasefire, an agreement to stop fighting, in July 2021 on condition that Eritrean forces withdraw from Tigray and the rebel government be restored. As of August 2023, Eritrean troops remained in some Tigray border areas despite a peace deal reached the previous November.

The broader context here is a three-sided lineup that no longer matches the 2020-2022 war. Addis Ababa is now operating alongside the Tigray Peace Force against the TPLF, while Eritrean armor is moving south into the same battlespace that Ethiopian drones are striking. It is a little like three cars meeting at a crossing with no lights, which raises the risk that moves are misread. Drone strikes allow Addis Ababa to contest an Eritrean advance without a ground-force meeting. They also signal resolve to domestic and Tigrayan audiences.

Looking at what this means for controlling escalation, the variables to watch are geographic depth and attribution, meaning how far troops go and whether responsibility is admitted. A limited push toward Adigrat met with strikes from a distance is a different problem than a sustained drive toward Mekelle or Shire. So is an unclear Eritrean presence versus an acknowledged deployment. Non-denial preserves room for maneuver. It also complicates communication between military staffs that already lack a durable border settlement mechanism.

In my view, readers should treat the next indicators as telling. Sustained ENDF-Tigray Peace Force consolidation around Wukro, Hagere Selam and Mekelle would suggest Addis Ababa sees an opening to weaken the TPLF before outside involvement hardens. Repeated drone engagements around Adigrat and the Zelambesa corridor would suggest Eritrea intends to hold ground rather than probe. Either path increases the chance of miscalculation between two national militaries operating close together under contested airspace.