Inflation Rose to 3.7% Ahead of the Fed's October Meeting
Inflation was 3.7% for the 12 months ending in September, up from 3.4% the month before, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which published the September 2026 results on October 14. BLS CPI release
Why this number matters for your money is simple. It is the inflation reading that will feed into borrowing costs and savings returns going into the Federal Open Market Committee decision in late October. That committee, the FOMC, is the Fed group that sets short-term interest rates.
In a separate release issued the same day, the Bureau reported a 0.6 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All employees/consumers in its September 2026 Real Earnings release. BLS Real Earnings release
The inflation releases followed a soft September labor report. Employers added 29,000 jobs, below economists' expectation of 90,000. After that jobs data, futures implied about a 25% chance of an October Federal Reserve rate hike. Reuters
That futures read comes from 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices. The CME FedWatch tool tracks probabilities of changes to the Federal Reserve rate on that basis.
On scheduling, the Federal Reserve lists a two-day FOMC Meeting on October 27-28, 2026. The minutes for the September 15-16, 2026 meeting, published October 6, state the next Committee meeting would be held on "Tuesday-Wednesday, October 27-28, 2026." Federal Reserve minutes The Committee holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed, with calendars, statements and minutes published for 2021-2027. Federal Reserve calendars
The broader context here is a split message going into the same meeting. Headline inflation sped up from a year earlier. Job growth came in well below what economists expected. That mix makes the Fed's normal response pattern, what economists call the reaction function, harder to read.
Looking at what this means for market pricing, the order of the news matters. The 25% October hike probability cited after payrolls came before the October 14 CPI release. Those futures-based odds will now have to take in a stronger year-over-year inflation number. That update to the math matters.
For your paycheck, the math is direct. Pay growth minus the change in prices decides what your money can actually buy. A 0.6 percent rise in prices in the month sets a high bar for any pay gain to turn into more buying power. Timing adds pressure, with both BLS releases landing less than two weeks before policymakers meet.
