Affordability dominates US midterms as inflation reaches 3.7%

Republicans are entering the 3 November midterm elections with inflation running at its highest rate since the spring and affordability at the center of the campaign.

A government report put U.S. inflation at 3.7% in September 2026. That compares with 3.0% year over year in January 2025, when President Donald Trump took office, according to The Guardian.

Trump campaigned in Arizona and Montana on Oct. 13. At those rallies, he blamed the price increases on former President Joe Biden, saying "He gave us the highest inflation in history," and said prices are declining.

Trump has also said "we have very little inflation" and denied that tariffs contributed to inflation. Tariffs were a central part of his economic program heading into the midterms.

Measures of how households feel about the economy remain weak. The University of Michigan's preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment, a regular gauge of household confidence, fell to 46.3 in October 2026, the second-lowest rating on record. In October 2026, 70% of Americans said they would cut back, at 54%, or stop spending, at 16%, in response to inflation.

Polling points to broad concern about living costs. In an October 2026 poll, 96% of Republicans agreed there is an affordability crisis, according to The Guardian. Senate Republicans had planned to bolster their affordability credentials ahead of the vote, according to Reuters.

Other polling shows a contested economic debate. In August 2026 polling, 37% of registered voters said Democrats had a better plan, policy or approach to the U.S. economy, according to Reuters. A Northwestern University survey found that voters prioritize financial interests over democracy issues. The unemployment rate was 4.2% heading into the midterms.

Guardian reporters answered reader questions about the economy, affordability and the midterms in a live question-and-answer session on Oct. 14.