Brazil Runoff Polls Give Bolsonaro Narrow Edge Over Lula
Flavio Bolsonaro leads Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by a small margin in final polling before Brazil's presidential run-off on October 25, 2026.
A CNT/MDA survey released on October 16 put Bolsonaro at 46.8 percent support compared with 45.9 percent for Lula. A Quaest poll reported on October 15 found Bolsonaro at 46 percent against 44 percent for Lula. A Datafolha poll recorded Bolsonaro at 47 percent to Lula's 45 percent, down from 49 percent a week earlier, with all three results inside a 2-point margin of error, the surveys' stated range of uncertainty. Al Jazeera
The run-off, a second vote between the two top finishers, follows a first round on October 4 in which Bolsonaro received 56,104,503 votes to Lula's 53,879,538. Measured in valid votes, which exclude blank and null ballots, Datafolha's October 15 survey put Bolsonaro at 51 percent and Lula at 49 percent. Bloomberg
The Datafolha result suggests some tightening since the start of the second-round campaign. On October 13, the pollster had put Bolsonaro at 49 percent to 45 percent for Lula in voting intentions, or 52 percent to 48 percent in valid votes.
Flavio Bolsonaro serves as a senator and is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Reuters The former president was barred from seeking re-election until 2030 after an electoral court ruled he abused his authority to cast doubt on the 2022 presidential election. He remained under house arrest while serving a 27-year sentence connected to efforts to overturn that vote, which he lost to Lula.
